044
FXUS64 KOHX 051756
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1256 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

After some patchy morning fog, the area has cleared up with ample
sunshine allowing things to feel a little summer-humid-like. A few
showers have developed across the Plateau region so far and this
will be the weather story for a good chunk of the day. Although we
aren`t expecting anything decently organized until later tonight
when an upper level impulse rolls through, a few isolated showers
and maybe some rumbles of thunder will pop up through this
afternoon. Most outdoor events should be good, but always keep an
eye on that radar in case you don`t want to get wet. With all that
said, today is shaping up to be a fairly dry one.

As mentioned above, an upper level system will be the main focus
for convection tonight as the bulk of the precipitation can be
expected after sunset and later. A few storms could produce
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, but think this bulk of
storms will push through before sunrise. With plenty of moisture
around, some showers and a a rumble of thunder will be possible
during the day on Monday, but no impacts are expected with Highs
a little cooler than today with the extra cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Tuesday through Wednesday Night is really the main focus for this
forecast period as strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated.
Although things are somewhat unclear how they will play out in
exact timing and location, scattered storms will develop across
the area Tuesday afternoon. However, think the threat for anything
strong to potentially severe would come from whatever develops to
our northwest and makes it to Middle Tennessee Tuesday Evening and
Night. The biggest concern with these storms would be damaging
winds and localized flash flooding with any heavy rainfall.

Now how things evolve will be the ultimate question come Wednesday
morning as some leftover convection hangs around and upper level
forcing moves closer to the area. The best forcing however will
be well to the north leaving almost zonal winds aloft. So the
timing of things combined with the best instability and shear
Wednesday afternoon and evening will be the ultimate question.
Regardless, think this set up for Wednesday afternoon through
Wednesday Night is the best set-up for strong to severe
thunderstorms that we`ve had in a month, so definitely something
to keep an eye on in the short term. At the very least, there`s a
damaging wind and flooding threat with a potential tornado threat
in the mix as well.

To top things off, although ensembles have very low probabilities
of any one location receiving greater than 4 inches during this 3
day timeframe, the ground is wet and any location that gets a
training set-up may have some issues with flooding. Luckily by
Thursday, this system pushes to the south and ushers in probably
our true last taste of spring On Friday just in time for Mother`s
Day Weekend, before the taste of summer returns and probably
remains. So, let`s enjoy it!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Although certainly tstms could occur in vcnty or at terminals
before or after these time windows, emphasized thru use of
4 hr TEMPO group time window best tstm impacts at mid state
terminal sites thru 06/18Z. Other than CKV where not enough
confidence presently because of a greater potential of isolated
convection occurrence, mentioned vcnty shwrs at all terminals at
least thru 06/03Z with prevailing shwrs then thru 06/18Z. Wind
variability probable. Emphasized mean wind direction/speed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      66  82  68  85 /  80  70  50  60
Clarksville    65  79  67  83 /  80  80  60  70
Crossville     61  77  62  79 /  50  80  70  70
Columbia       65  82  66  84 /  80  70  50  60
Cookeville     63  79  64  81 /  60  80  60  70
Jamestown      61  77  62  81 /  50  80  70  80
Lawrenceburg   65  82  67  84 /  80  60  50  60
Murfreesboro   65  84  66  85 /  70  70  50  60
Waverly        64  80  67  83 /  80  80  50  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hurley
LONG TERM....Hurley
AVIATION.....JB Wright