408
FXUS64 KOHX 121722
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1222 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday Night)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

High pressure is in place over the region and that is going to
bring great weather for this Mother`s Day. Highs this afternoon
are on track for most of the area to make it to around 80 but it
will stay a bit cooler over the Plateau. High clouds will start to
increase later this afternoon ahead of out next system that will
move in here Monday/Tuesday. Dry weather will continue into the
overnight but clouds will continue to increase with lows in the
50s.

On Monday an upper level trough will be tracking east over the
Plains and this will push a warm front into our area Monday
morning into the afternoon. We can expect periods of rain along
and ahead of this front. CAPE before Monday evening will be very
limited and we shouldn`t see any thunderstorms before that. The
rain chances and cloud cover will keep things a little bit cooler
with highs in the mid 70s. Winds ahead of the trough will be
somewhat breezy with gusts 20-25 mph in the afternoon and
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

The warm front will lift north through TN Monday evening into the
overnight and we will start to see things become more humid with
dew points pushing back into the mid 60s to around 70 by mid-
morning Tuesday. The upper level trough and cold front will then
track over TN on Tuesday. This will keep showers and thunderstorms
in the forecast. We do see 0-6 km shear push to above 30 knots
ahead of the front in the afternoon but soundings show poor lapse
rates and that will really limit our chances of seeing stronger
storms. The chances still look low but if we were to see a
stronger storm it would likely be in our southeast where CAPE will
be a little higher. PWATs behind the warm front will increase
above 1.20" and that will bring a threat of heavy rain with any
convection that we see. Rain totals through Tuesday evening will
likely range from 0.70-1.50".

Dry conditions will start to set in behind the cold front but the
trough will linger over us on Wednesday with cooler air building
in aloft. This will bring scattered showers and maybe a few
thunderstorms throughout Wednesday with the afternoon seeing the
best chances. Short wave ridging and dry weather builds in
Wednesday evening into Thursday. As we head into the end of the
week into the weekend it will be somewhat unsettled as multiple
short waves push over the area. This will bring period of showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

A surface ridge is sliding across Middle Tennessee today, so we
have one more day of mostly sunny weather to enjoy, with generally
light wind today and tonight. An approaching storm system will
begin spreading mid and high clouds into the area overnight and
tomorrow, with winds increasing from the south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      59  74  65  79 /   0  40  60 100
Clarksville    57  72  63  76 /   0  50  70 100
Crossville     53  68  58  71 /   0  40  70 100
Columbia       58  74  64  79 /  10  50  60 100
Cookeville     55  71  62  74 /   0  40  70 100
Jamestown      53  72  59  73 /   0  40  70 100
Lawrenceburg   58  72  64  77 /  10  50  60 100
Murfreesboro   56  74  64  79 /   0  40  60 100
Waverly        60  73  64  76 /  10  50  60 100

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Rose