Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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252 FXUS64 KOHX 122322 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 622 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday Night) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 High pressure is in place over the region and that is going to bring great weather for this Mother`s Day. Highs this afternoon are on track for most of the area to make it to around 80 but it will stay a bit cooler over the Plateau. High clouds will start to increase later this afternoon ahead of out next system that will move in here Monday/Tuesday. Dry weather will continue into the overnight but clouds will continue to increase with lows in the 50s. On Monday an upper level trough will be tracking east over the Plains and this will push a warm front into our area Monday morning into the afternoon. We can expect periods of rain along and ahead of this front. CAPE before Monday evening will be very limited and we shouldn`t see any thunderstorms before that. The rain chances and cloud cover will keep things a little bit cooler with highs in the mid 70s. Winds ahead of the trough will be somewhat breezy with gusts 20-25 mph in the afternoon and evening. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 The warm front will lift north through TN Monday evening into the overnight and we will start to see things become more humid with dew points pushing back into the mid 60s to around 70 by mid- morning Tuesday. The upper level trough and cold front will then track over TN on Tuesday. This will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. We do see 0-6 km shear push to above 30 knots ahead of the front in the afternoon but soundings show poor lapse rates and that will really limit our chances of seeing stronger storms. The chances still look low but if we were to see a stronger storm it would likely be in our southeast where CAPE will be a little higher. PWATs behind the warm front will increase above 1.20" and that will bring a threat of heavy rain with any convection that we see. Rain totals through Tuesday evening will likely range from 0.70-1.50". Dry conditions will start to set in behind the cold front but the trough will linger over us on Wednesday with cooler air building in aloft. This will bring scattered showers and maybe a few thunderstorms throughout Wednesday with the afternoon seeing the best chances. Short wave ridging and dry weather builds in Wednesday evening into Thursday. As we head into the end of the week into the weekend it will be somewhat unsettled as multiple short waves push over the area. This will bring period of showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 VFR conditions will continue through tonight for all of Middle Tennessee. High clouds will thicken as a system approaches from our west. Winds will be light southeast. For the daytime Monday, cigs will gradually lower to MVFR as deeper moisture arrives with isolated to scattered rain showers. Winds will increase from the south southeast near 10KT with a few gusts around 16KT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 59 75 65 79 / 0 50 60 100 Clarksville 57 74 63 76 / 0 60 70 100 Crossville 52 68 58 71 / 0 40 70 100 Columbia 58 74 64 79 / 10 50 60 100 Cookeville 56 71 62 74 / 0 40 70 100 Jamestown 52 72 59 73 / 0 40 70 100 Lawrenceburg 59 73 64 77 / 20 50 70 100 Murfreesboro 56 75 63 79 / 10 40 60 100 Waverly 59 73 63 76 / 10 50 70 100 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mueller LONG TERM....Mueller AVIATION.....13