759
FXUS64 KOHX 181657
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1157 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Showers and storms have moved into the southwestern part of the
CWA over the last hour with more development further north.
Looking at obs, a weak mesolow is centered near the TN/MS border.
CAMS have the mesolow moving east through the afternoon hours. The
focus of showers and storms should be in the south this afternoon
with more scattered activity along and north of I-40. A couple
strong storms are possible mainly south of I-40 through the
afternoon. Currently instability values are around 600-850 J/kg of
MLCAPE with the CAMs increasing those values to 1200-1400 J/kg
this afternoon ahead of the mesolow in the south. Shear is
outracing the lift, so any tall updrafts will not be able to
sustain themselves. Some small hail will be possible along with
some gusty winds in the strongest cells. Heavy rain will also be
possible across the area today especially in the south where PWAT
values will be around 1.4-1.6". MRMS 1 hr QPF accumulations show
some pockets of 1-2" over Wayne County recently. These types of
rain amounts will be possible farther east.

As we lose diurnal influences and the 500 mb trough axis slides
east, shower coverage will decrease after 00z. Sky coverage will
decrease west of the plateau with very light north wind. Patches
of fog could develop after midnight. Once we scour out any fog
Sunday morning, temperatures will be on the increase. Upper
ridging will build in from the west and highs should top out in
the 80s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

The start of the extended forecast will see a continuation of
warmer temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 80s from Monday
through Wednesday. A cold front will try to approach the Mid South
on Wednesday but will lose its eastern momentum as the parent low
lifts out of the central plains toward Ontario. The surface
boundary will get close enough for shower and storm chances to be
reintroduced Wednesday night but more so on Thursday. The surface
front looks like it will linger in vicinity of the area which
will keep rain chances elevated on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

MVFR to LIFR cigs will start to rise as the morning goes on and
should return to VFR levels by the afternoon. Patchy fog will also
lift by 14z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop late
morning and continue into the afternoon, MVFR/IFR in any
thunderstorms. Shower activity will diminish during the evening.
Patchy fog will be possible tonight and will bring periods of
MVFR/IFR conditions. Light northerly winds under 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      79  63  86  63 /  60  20   0   0
Clarksville    79  61  85  61 /  50  10   0   0
Crossville     74  58  79  57 /  70  30  10   0
Columbia       79  61  85  60 /  70  30   0   0
Cookeville     75  60  80  59 /  60  30  10   0
Jamestown      74  58  80  57 /  70  40  10   0
Lawrenceburg   78  61  83  61 /  70  30   0   0
Murfreesboro   79  61  85  60 /  60  30   0   0
Waverly        78  61  85  62 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Mueller