Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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377 FXUS64 KOHX 161703 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1203 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1126 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 KOHX radar is getting a break today with only some Cu and cirrus around this morning. Breaks in the clouds are expected to become more numerous this afternoon. Rain and storm chances will return tonight as upper ridging moves east and is replaced with southwesterly flow. Showers and storms will move in close to dawn. There should be a break in the showers and storms in the morning with a chance of more showers of storms in the afternoon and into the overnight hours as a broad trough moves toward the area. As far as severe potential on Friday, the potential looks low with marginal shear and CAPE values less than 500 J/kg. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1126 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 The trough will slow its eastward progress Friday night with the troughing influences lingering on Saturday with more showers and a storm or two. With the clouds and showers, highs on Saturday should stay in the 70s across the the area. The trough axis will move east Saturday night with northerly flow on Sunday. A couple of sprinkles are possible on Sunday mainly along the plateau. Upper ridging will build in from the west Sunday night with southerly return flow on Monday and Tuesday. With that, temperatures will warm well into the 80s on Monday and Tuesday, and we have the potential of touching 90 for the first time this year on Tuesday. A cold front will approach Tuesday night or Wednesday with showers and storms. Behind the front, temperatures will be slightly cooler. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Conditions will slowly improve to VFR over the next few hours as clouds break. Should see a period of VFR conditions through at least 11Z before additional SHRA/TSRA moves into the area. Some uncertainty with timing an location, so have only included vis impacts for CKV/BNA/MQY at this time. Should see cigs drop near the end of the current TAF period. Will have some variability in winds, eventually settling on S/SE and remaining below 10 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 65 77 64 79 / 30 80 70 80 Clarksville 64 74 63 78 / 40 80 70 70 Crossville 58 72 60 74 / 10 80 70 90 Columbia 63 74 63 78 / 30 80 70 80 Cookeville 61 73 61 74 / 10 80 70 90 Jamestown 58 73 60 74 / 10 80 80 90 Lawrenceburg 64 74 63 77 / 20 80 60 80 Murfreesboro 63 76 63 78 / 20 80 70 80 Waverly 63 73 63 76 / 40 80 60 80 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Adcock