275
FXUS64 KOHX 131044
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
544 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Quiet morning thus far, but that will change as we progress
through the remainder of the day and the coming week. Looking at
the big picture for the rest of the week, I do not expect for it
to be an all out washout but we will likely have scattered showers
and thunderstorms for parts of the area through the vast majority
of the coming week. Again, coverage is going to be scattered so it
will not be a 24/7 rain, but the chances will remain elevated
through the week.

Starting off with today, upper-low will continue to move near the
area, allowing some moisture to return with some showers. Skies
are already beginning to fill in looking at the latest nighttime
microphysics satellite images, with broken to overcast skies
remaining through much of today. By the afternoon we will begin
to get a little bit of destabilization, so could hear a rumble or
two of thunder. Luckily, no funny business is expected.

Warm front will continue to push our direction on Tuesday,
keeping scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
throughout much of the day. Models have begun to come into better
agreement of there being a limited / conditional threat for a
couple of strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, mainly
for locations south of I-40. Lapse rates have become a bit more
conducive, with models showing ample CAPE and shear for a few
storms to misbehave. Timing for this would like be mainly for the
afternoon, but should have a better idea when additional CAMs come
into view. Damaging winds and hail would be the main concerns. PWATs
remain around 1", so while a couple of heavy rainers can`t be
ruled out I do not think flooding will be a large concern. Some
areas are still pretty saturated, so this rain will likely just
keep them more status quo than anything else. Total rainfall
amounts will likely be around 0.5" to an inch for the area.

Temps will be a bit on the cooler side today, with highs likely in
the mid 70s or lower. Will get some warming tomorrow as the warm
front lifts northward, allowing highs to climb back to the mid to
upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will slowly drift eastward on
Wednesday, but don`t think they will completely drift out of the
area. Highest chances will remain across the Upper Cumberland on
Wednesday. By Wednesday night into Thursday, we will get our one
solid break from the showers for the week. High pressure will move
over for the day, allowing temps to climb back into the 80s.
Unfortunately this break will be short-lived, as another
unsettled pattern moves back in Friday into next weekend. Models
begin to diverge in solution into next weekend, so will just leave
it at that with shower/thunderstorm chances likely continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Predominantly VFR conditions currently, but widespread low cigs
are expected to move in by this afternoon. -SHRA is currently
moving in from the SW, which could bring periodic flight category
drops through the day. Additional -SHRA will move in this
afternoon with the low cigs, tried to time things out with FM
groups. Winds will remain generally from the south, becoming gusty
(~20kts) in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  64  78  63 /  60  60 100  70
Clarksville    72  63  76  60 /  60  70 100  60
Crossville     68  58  71  58 /  60  60 100  90
Columbia       72  63  79  61 /  70  60 100  50
Cookeville     72  61  74  60 /  60  50 100  90
Jamestown      72  58  74  58 /  60  50 100  90
Lawrenceburg   71  64  78  61 /  70  60 100  60
Murfreesboro   72  63  79  61 /  60  60 100  70
Waverly        72  63  76  60 /  70  60 100  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adcock
LONG TERM....Adcock
AVIATION.....Adcock