Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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321 FXUS64 KOHX 150658 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 158 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 151 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 A moist/humid but rain free morning appears to be in plaice. Dewpoint depressions are 0F to 2F area wide with some fog formation noted across the south so far. Numerics indicate 1-3sm vsbys by 12Z for the cwa. Dewpoints are expected to hold steady so will need to watch if any dense pockets emerge. Today, a weak but stacked system will continue moving eastward across KY. Backside shortwave energy will move southward and provide a continuing chance of showers and a few thunderstorms today. High temperatures today should warm into the mid to upper 70s and aid with the convective development by early afternoon. Cells will move southeastward but no strong or severe thunderstorms are expected. A few showers will hang on into Wednesday evening before moving out. Upper ridging will return Thursday with perhaps some partial sunshine. On its heels, however, the next system of interest will be developing over the southern Plains. Associated moisture, in the form of showers and thunderstorms, will be moving in Thursday night and especially on Friday. Shear levels will pick up Friday afternoon so perhaps a marginal risk upcoming. Otherwise, rainfall amounts through the short term will be less than one inch. For the short term temps, the numbers look seasonal for the most part. But, it will be into the 80s on Thursday with the upper ridging in place. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 151 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 In the extended forecast, the aforementioned storm system looks as though it will be a rather slow mover, potentially. It also looks as though it will be a weakening stacked system, with the pva feeder being absent. Instabilities still abound but forcing and shear look to be on the weak side when severe phasing is examined. Moreover, spc keeps the area free of any D4-D8 severe potential. Showers and tstms will be moving out by Saturday night. A stacked zone of high pressure will move in on Sunday and start to warm us up. A warm front will lift to our north with showers and tstms along and north of it. For good measure, the NBM wants to input low pops for the tail end of the period. For the extended temps, seasonal warmth expected for the weekend. Then we will warm up nicely as previously mentioned upper ridging sets in. Highs will warm to well into the 80s early next week. Lows will increase as well and will reach into the mid to upper 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Scattered showers will continue to diminish across the area through 06Z. MVFR cigs will set in overnight for all of the terminals possibly falling to IFR at times except for the eastern terminals where IFR cigs are expected. Cigs will start to come up some after 16z. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tomorrow after 16z. South winds under 10 knots lighten up overnight and become more westerly and then shift northerly tomorrow up to 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 78 60 84 65 / 60 10 10 30 Clarksville 75 58 83 64 / 50 10 20 40 Crossville 70 58 78 58 / 80 40 0 10 Columbia 78 58 84 64 / 50 10 10 30 Cookeville 72 59 78 61 / 80 30 0 20 Jamestown 70 58 77 59 / 90 30 0 10 Lawrenceburg 77 58 83 64 / 50 10 0 30 Murfreesboro 78 59 83 63 / 70 20 10 20 Waverly 76 58 84 63 / 50 0 10 40 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION.....21