314
FXUS64 KOHX 180516
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1216 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Water vapor imagery this evening shows a trough to our west over
the OK/AR area which will be moving eastward over our area
tomorrow. In the meantime, tonight`s 00Z sounding shows a
saturated atmosphere with a PWAT of 1.55 inches - not a daily
record, but over the 90th percentile for the date. This has
resulted in a few sprinkles persisting this evening, and this
trend is expected to continue overnight. As this trough
approaches, shower activity will become more scattered on
Saturday. A few thunderstorms will also be possible, and a few of
these may become strong with gusty winds and frequent lightning
the main threats. Otherwise, with plenty of moisture, patchy fog
and low clouds will be possible tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1119 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Showers continue to lift through Middle Tennessee this morning.
Showers are expected to become less numerous this afternoon
through the overnight hours. Patchy fog and low clouds will
develop overnight along with a couple scattered showers as the
trough axis remains to the west of the area. The trough axis will
slowly move eastward on Saturday with additional shower activity
possible and a couple of storms. The highest rain chances will be
along the plateau with lower chances the farther west you go.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1119 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Some patchy fog will be possible again Saturday night, otherwise
Saturday night should be mainly dry. A couple of showers can`t be
ruled out on Sunday along the plateau but elongated upper ridging
will build in from the west with temperatures rebounding into the
80s. Monday and Tuesday continue to look warm with highs getting
into the upper 80s and potentially touching 90 degrees. Models
have slowed down rain chances from Tuesday night/Wednesday to
Wednesday night/Thursday. This means Wednesday will be another
warm day with temperatures in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Low clouds have started to build into the area and we will see
MVFR/IFR cigs overnight. We will also see patchy fog at times.
Cigs will start to rise tomorrow morning and should return to VFR
levels by the afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
develop late morning and continue into the afternoon. Shower
activity will diminish during the evening. Light northerly winds
under 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      79  63  86  64 /  80  20   0   0
Clarksville    79  61  85  62 /  70  10   0   0
Crossville     73  58  79  57 /  90  40   0   0
Columbia       79  61  84  61 /  90  30   0   0
Cookeville     75  60  81  59 /  90  30   0   0
Jamestown      73  58  80  57 /  90  40   0   0
Lawrenceburg   79  61  83  62 /  90  30   0   0
Murfreesboro   80  61  85  61 /  80  30   0   0
Waverly        79  61  85  62 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Clements
SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Mueller