Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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959 FXUS64 KOHX 121717 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1217 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Dry conditions will continue through early overnight hours tonight due to continued building of ridging influences surface and aloft. Afternoon high temperatures today will be around or slightly warmer than seasonal normal values ranging upper 70s to lower 80s, mid 70s Cumberland Plateau Region. Look for increasing cloudiness from southwest to northeast as tonight progresses ahead of next weather system to influences mid state`s weather with some isolated to scattered light showers moving into southwestern and western portions of our area late tonight. Lows tonight will be around seasonal normal values in mid to upper 50s. Upper level flow will become increasingly southwesterly orientated as Monday progresses supportive of embedded multiple shortwave passages. Southerly low level atmospheric flow will become increasingly established also. Isolated to scattered showers should spread across all of our area as morning hours progress on Monday with scattered to numerous showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms prevailing as Monday afternoon hours progress. Not expecting any organized strong to severe storm potential as of this time. With expected cloud coverage and rainfall, highs on Monday will drop down into lower 70s, upper 60s to around 70 for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Weather pattern will continue to be conducive to a continuance of shower and thunderstorm chances through Wednesday afternoon as progressive southwesterly upper level flow continues and a vertically stacked surface/upper level low system moves across mid state region Tuesday night into the day on Wednesday. Total rainfall amounts from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon though look to generally range only from around 0.75" up to 1.5." Some strong thunderstorms could be possible as Tuesday progress. Mild lows in low to mid 60s, upper 50s to around 60 Cumberland Plateau Region are expected on Monday night. High temperatures will span the 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday. A surface front will drop in from the northwest and upper level ridging will build across our area as Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon progress bringing temporary dry conditions to our area with high temperatures continuing to warm. A surface frontal passage looks to occur west to east across mid state region as Friday progresses with upper level flow once again taking on southwesterly flow characteristics with possible multiple embedded shortwave passages and a potentially more pronounced upper level trough approaching our area by late Saturday afternoon from the west. Shower and thunderstorm chances will return to mid state region Thursday night through Saturday afternoon. Total rainfall amounts during this time period look to range from greater than 0.50" up to around 1.25." A warming trend to seasonally warm temperatures will once again commences on Saturday after highs on Friday are expected to be around seasonal normal values. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 A surface ridge is sliding across Middle Tennessee today, so we have one more day of mostly sunny weather to enjoy, with generally light wind today and tonight. An approaching storm system will begin spreading mid and high clouds into the area overnight and tomorrow, with winds increasing from the south. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 59 74 65 79 / 0 40 60 100 Clarksville 57 72 63 76 / 0 50 70 100 Crossville 53 68 58 71 / 0 40 70 100 Columbia 58 74 64 79 / 10 50 60 100 Cookeville 55 71 62 74 / 0 40 70 100 Jamestown 53 72 59 73 / 0 40 70 100 Lawrenceburg 58 72 64 77 / 10 50 60 100 Murfreesboro 56 74 64 79 / 0 40 60 100 Waverly 60 73 64 76 / 10 50 60 100 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JB Wright LONG TERM....JB Wright AVIATION.....Rose