Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
018 FXUS64 KOHX 161057 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 557 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 143 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Quiet and calm night across middle TN. It remains rather humid and current temps are generally in the upper 50s Plateau and 60-65 elsewhere. A narrow zone of high pressure will control the weather pattern for today. By afternoon, an upper system will attempt to organize across far western TX and the New Mexico planes. Closer to home but still to our west, a warm front will be lifting northward across the mid MS valley. Ingredients there may be enough to produce some strong to severe activity. Mean storm motion is toward 70 degrees or so. There actually is a marginal risk just west of Stewart county only. This appears to be momentum and trajectory dependent as conditions will point toward weakening of any storms that can make it that far. There will be development overnight tonight so that by 12Z Friday there could be some storms into our western areas. At that time, organization looks average, but the remaining parameters weak. As far as I can tell, should be just general showers and a thunderstorm or two at that time. Friday afternoon, both synoptic and parameter driven features have weakened. We are still in a marginal but the upper feature shows a broad open wave and surface features are much weaker. Just does not look impressive with the latest run. However, run consistency support is weak so the marginal looks as though it shall remain. At any rate, the upper system will take its time but should eventually drag its axis to our east Saturday night. At that time, showers and thunderstorms should come to an end. Total qpf totals through the short term look like around or just over 1 inch for most areas. For the near term temps, today looks like the warmest day with lower to mid 80s for some areas. 70s for highs will follow. Overnight lows will generally be 60F-65F. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 143 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 For the extended period, upper riding will build in with a somewhat impressive axis reaching the mid state on Tuesday afternoon. At that time, 850 mb temps will approach 18C or so, so here comes some warmth. The progressiveness of the ridge will allow a frontal system to bring another round of showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday. D4-D8 is absent of any severe potential for now. The extended temps look warm. We will quickly heat up into the upper 80s into mid week. Maybe a 90F report here or there across our far west? A little cooler Wednesday. Lows will remain in the lower to mid 60s range. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 554 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Low clouds have greatly expanded across the area overnight with MVFR to LIFR cigs/vis currently seen at airports. Cigs/vis will improve back to VFR by late morning through tonight. Rain is not anticipated to spread over terminals until the very end and after the current TAF period. Light west to northwest winds are expected today with a switch to southeast at BNA/MQY/CKV this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 84 65 75 65 / 10 40 90 80 Clarksville 82 64 73 63 / 20 60 80 70 Crossville 77 59 70 60 / 10 20 90 90 Columbia 84 64 74 63 / 10 40 80 80 Cookeville 78 61 72 62 / 10 20 90 90 Jamestown 77 59 72 60 / 10 10 90 90 Lawrenceburg 83 64 74 64 / 10 40 80 80 Murfreesboro 83 63 75 63 / 10 30 90 80 Waverly 83 64 73 63 / 20 60 80 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION.....Shamburger