018
FXUS64 KOHX 161057
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
557 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Quiet and calm night across middle TN. It remains rather humid and
current temps are generally in the upper 50s Plateau and 60-65
elsewhere.

A narrow zone of high pressure will control the weather pattern for
today. By afternoon, an upper system will attempt to organize across
far western TX and the New Mexico planes. Closer to home but still
to our west, a warm front will be lifting northward across the mid
MS valley. Ingredients there may be enough to produce some strong to
severe activity. Mean storm motion is toward 70 degrees or so.
There actually is a marginal risk just west of Stewart county
only. This appears to be momentum and trajectory dependent as
conditions will point toward weakening of any storms that can make
it that far. There will be development overnight tonight so that
by 12Z Friday there could be some storms into our western areas.
At that time, organization looks average, but the remaining
parameters weak. As far as I can tell, should be just general
showers and a thunderstorm or two at that time.

Friday afternoon, both synoptic and parameter driven features have
weakened. We are still in a marginal but the upper feature shows a
broad open wave and surface features are much weaker. Just does not
look impressive with the latest run. However, run consistency support
is weak so the marginal looks as though it shall remain.

At any rate, the upper system will take its time but should
eventually drag its axis to our east Saturday night. At that time,
showers and thunderstorms should come to an end. Total qpf totals
through the short term look like around or just over 1 inch for
most areas.

For the near term temps, today looks like the warmest day with lower
to mid 80s for some areas. 70s for highs will follow. Overnight lows
will generally be 60F-65F.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

For the extended period, upper riding will build in with a somewhat
impressive axis reaching the mid state on Tuesday afternoon. At that
time, 850 mb temps will approach 18C or so, so here comes some
warmth. The progressiveness of the ridge will allow a frontal system
to bring another round of showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday.
D4-D8 is absent of any severe potential for now.

The extended temps look warm. We will quickly heat up into the upper
80s into mid week. Maybe a 90F report here or there across our far
west? A little cooler Wednesday. Lows will remain in the lower to
mid 60s range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Low clouds have greatly expanded across the area overnight with
MVFR to LIFR cigs/vis currently seen at airports. Cigs/vis will
improve back to VFR by late morning through tonight. Rain is not
anticipated to spread over terminals until the very end and after
the current TAF period. Light west to northwest winds are expected
today with a switch to southeast at BNA/MQY/CKV this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      84  65  75  65 /  10  40  90  80
Clarksville    82  64  73  63 /  20  60  80  70
Crossville     77  59  70  60 /  10  20  90  90
Columbia       84  64  74  63 /  10  40  80  80
Cookeville     78  61  72  62 /  10  20  90  90
Jamestown      77  59  72  60 /  10  10  90  90
Lawrenceburg   83  64  74  64 /  10  40  80  80
Murfreesboro   83  63  75  63 /  10  30  90  80
Waverly        83  64  73  63 /  20  60  80  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Shamburger