562
FXUS64 KOHX 151139
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
639 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

A moist/humid but rain free morning appears to be in plaice.
Dewpoint depressions are 0F to 2F area wide with some fog
formation noted across the south so far. Numerics indicate 1-3sm
vsbys by 12Z for the cwa. Dewpoints are expected to hold steady so
will need to watch if any dense pockets emerge.

Today, a weak but stacked system will continue moving eastward
across KY. Backside shortwave energy will move southward and provide
a continuing chance of showers and a few thunderstorms today. High
temperatures today should warm into the mid to upper 70s and aid
with the convective development by early afternoon. Cells will move
southeastward but no strong or severe thunderstorms are expected.
A few showers will hang on into Wednesday evening before moving out.

Upper ridging will return Thursday with perhaps some partial
sunshine. On its heels, however, the next system of interest will be
developing over the southern Plains. Associated moisture, in the
form of showers and thunderstorms, will be moving in Thursday night
and especially on Friday. Shear levels will pick up Friday afternoon
so perhaps a marginal risk upcoming. Otherwise, rainfall amounts
through the short term will be less than one inch.

For the short term temps, the numbers look seasonal for the most
part. But, it will be into the 80s on Thursday with the upper
ridging in place.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

In the extended forecast, the aforementioned storm system looks as
though it will be a rather slow mover, potentially. It also looks
as though it will be a weakening stacked system, with the pva feeder
being absent. Instabilities still abound but forcing and shear look
to be on the weak side when severe phasing is examined. Moreover,
spc keeps the area free of any D4-D8 severe potential. Showers and
tstms will be moving out by Saturday night. A stacked zone of high
pressure will move in on Sunday and start to warm us up. A warm
front will lift to our north with showers and tstms along and north
of it. For good measure, the NBM wants to input low pops for the
tail end of the period.

For the extended temps, seasonal warmth expected for the weekend.
Then we will warm up nicely as previously mentioned upper ridging
sets in. Highs will warm to well into the 80s early next week. Lows
will increase as well and will reach into the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Upper trough shortwave axis will push to the east of the mid state
today. Backside energy will keep clouds and isolated to scattered
showers and a few tstms in the forecast. Low IFR cigs will
prevail for much of the taf period. VCTS will cover the wx
grouping. Otw, light winds will veer from westerly to
northwesterly with time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      78  60  84  65 /  60  10  10  30
Clarksville    75  58  83  64 /  50  10  20  40
Crossville     70  58  78  58 /  80  40   0  10
Columbia       78  58  84  64 /  50  10  10  30
Cookeville     72  59  78  61 /  80  30   0  20
Jamestown      70  58  77  59 /  90  30   0  10
Lawrenceburg   77  58  83  64 /  50  10   0  30
Murfreesboro   78  59  83  63 /  70  20  10  20
Waverly        76  58  84  63 /  50   0  10  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....21