Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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434 FXUS64 KOHX 160047 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 747 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 737 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 A few showers over the Cumberland Plateau continue to stream in from KY at update time. These will persist for a few more hours, then we`ll likely start to see some fog tonight. I`ve gone ahead and thrown in a little better coverage for fog, but not sure it`ll be too densely widespread, so I`ll refrain from an advisory at this point and at the midnight shift take a look later tonight. After what should be a quiet day tomorrow, our active weather pattern looks to pick back up again early Friday morning. CAMs show the potential for showers and storms to move after midnight tomorrow night, then a lull through the late morning/early afternoon hours before another wave of storms moves into the area Friday afternoon and evening. If you`re paying attention, you`ll already know SPC has a Marginal Risk across the area for Friday. After taking a look a severe weather parameters, I`m not overly impressed at this point, but it`ll be worth watching over the next day or so. There will be plenty of shear and decent lapse rates by Friday evening, but models across the board struggle to get 500 J/Kg of instability in here at any point Friday. We will start to get into the HREF time frame over the next 12 hours, so we`ll see how more of the CAMs handle Friday in tonight and tomorrow`s forecast packages. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Areal coverage of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should shift eastward as remainder of afternoon hours progress with rainfall chances ending early evening hours Upper Cumberland Region. Not expecting any strong to severe storms as of this time. Upper level ridging influences will build into mid state region as tonight through at least morning hours on Thursday with maybe a stray shower or thunderstorm or two northwestern portions of our area as afternoon hours on Thursday progress. Still looks like afternoon highs temperatures today will span the 70s with lows tonight mainly spanning the upper 50s. Highs on Thursday will become even warmer as surface high pressure influences shift southeastward into deep south. Highs on Thursday afternoon will range low to mid 80s, upper 70s to around 80 for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Showers and thunderstorm chances will return to our area as Thursday Night progresses as more of a southwesterly upper level flow pattern begins to develop with increased low level moisture across at least western portions of our area. A better chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected as Friday progresses. Some strong thunderstorms may be possible during afternoon hours on Friday. Lows on Thursday night will be quite mild in low to mid 60s, upper 50s to around 60 Cumberland Plateau Region with highs on Friday returning to spanning the 70s. This unsettled weather pattern will persist through Friday Night into at least first part of upcoming weekend. Look for dry conditions to once again return to our area as Saturday night through Sunday progresses. Enough residual moisture with proximity to eastern fridges of upper level ridging influences could support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region Saturday Night into Sunday. Those upper level ridging influences building in across our area will result in quite seasonably warm temperatures by Sunday afternoon with highs mainly in mid 80s, upper 70s to lower 80s for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region. Upper level ridging influences will continue to build across our area as first part of next work week progresses with warmest high temperatures of spring season possible with highs potentially as high as the lower 90s west of Cumberland Plateau Region by Tuesday afternoon. Shower and storm chances will return to our area as Tuesday night into Wednesday progresses. Total rainfall amounts from this afternoon through next Wednesday afternoon will range from just over an inch to around two inches. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Cigs continue to bounce between VFR and MVFR. This will be the trend through the majority of this TAF cycle as a surface low continues to move NE out of the area. Showers remain over the Upper Cumberland, but will diminish through the evening. Winds of around 10 kts gusting between 12-18 kts will also diminish through the evening, becoming light and variable overnight. Fog is possible tonight, but greatest chances will be over the the Upper Cumberland. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 61 84 65 77 / 10 10 30 90 Clarksville 58 83 64 75 / 0 20 50 90 Crossville 57 78 58 72 / 30 10 10 80 Columbia 58 84 64 75 / 0 10 30 90 Cookeville 59 78 60 73 / 30 10 20 80 Jamestown 57 77 58 73 / 30 10 10 80 Lawrenceburg 58 83 64 75 / 0 10 30 80 Murfreesboro 59 83 62 76 / 10 10 30 80 Waverly 57 83 64 74 / 0 20 50 90 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Unger SHORT TERM...JB Wright LONG TERM....JB Wright AVIATION.....Unger