Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
870 FXUS64 KOHX 172352 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 652 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1119 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Showers continue to lift through Middle Tennessee this morning. Showers are expected to become less numerous this afternoon through the overnight hours. Patchy fog and low clouds will develop overnight along with a couple scattered showers as the trough axis remains to the west of the area. The trough axis will slowly move eastward on Saturday with additional shower activity possible and a couple of storms. The highest rain chances will be along the plateau with lower chances the farther west you go. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1119 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Some patchy fog will be possible again Saturday night, otherwise Saturday night should be mainly dry. A couple of showers can`t be ruled out on Sunday along the plateau but elongated upper ridging will build in from the west with temperatures rebounding into the 80s. Monday and Tuesday continue to look warm with highs getting into the upper 80s and potentially touching 90 degrees. Models have slowed down rain chances from Tuesday night/Wednesday to Wednesday night/Thursday. This means Wednesday will be another warm day with temperatures in the 80s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 652 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Wide flight category variations thru 18/24Z with lowest ceiling threshold continuing to look like they will become established after 18/06Z as calm to light north winds prevail. Continued with previously mentioned TEMPO periods fog except BNA 18/08Z-18/13Z. From 18/18Z-18/24Z looks to be best potential timing for tstm development BNA/MQY/SRB/CSV. Although tstms could form/move across, or in vcnty of terminals during this time interval, addressed best potential of tstms per 2 hour TEMPO groups. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 63 80 63 86 / 30 60 20 10 Clarksville 61 79 62 85 / 20 40 10 0 Crossville 59 73 58 79 / 60 70 50 30 Columbia 61 79 61 85 / 30 70 30 10 Cookeville 61 75 60 80 / 50 70 50 20 Jamestown 58 74 58 80 / 60 70 50 20 Lawrenceburg 63 78 62 84 / 30 70 30 10 Murfreesboro 62 79 62 85 / 30 70 20 10 Waverly 61 79 61 85 / 20 50 10 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....JB Wright