962
FXUS64 KOHX 190151 AAA
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Nashville TN
851 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Upper level troughing influences will continue shifting eastward,
thus shower chances will continue to diminish over next few
hours, with shower and/or thunderstorm chances ending by
midnight. Current regional temperature trends continue to support
overnight forecasted lows. Tweaked hourly temperature, dewpoint,
wind speed/direction, and sky condition grids blending them with
previously forecasted hourly gridded late evening values. With
decreasing cloudiness and light north to calm winds expected,
and continued ample low level moisture present across mid state
region, patchy fog formation will be possible remainder of this
evening and especially as overnight hours progress. Remainder of
forecast continues to be on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Showers and storms have moved into the southwestern part of the
CWA over the last hour with more development further north.
Looking at obs, a weak mesolow is centered near the TN/MS border.
CAMS have the mesolow moving east through the afternoon hours. The
focus of showers and storms should be in the south this afternoon
with more scattered activity along and north of I-40. A couple
strong storms are possible mainly south of I-40 through the
afternoon. Currently instability values are around 600-850 J/kg of
MLCAPE with the CAMs increasing those values to 1200-1400 J/kg
this afternoon ahead of the mesolow in the south. Shear is
outracing the lift, so any tall updrafts will not be able to
sustain themselves. Some small hail will be possible along with
some gusty winds in the strongest cells. Heavy rain will also be
possible across the area today especially in the south where PWAT
values will be around 1.4-1.6". MRMS 1 hr QPF accumulations show
some pockets of 1-2" over Wayne County recently. These types of
rain amounts will be possible farther east.

As we lose diurnal influences and the 500 mb trough axis slides
east, shower coverage will decrease after 00z. Sky coverage will
decrease west of the plateau with very light north wind. Patches
of fog could develop after midnight. Once we scour out any fog
Sunday morning, temperatures will be on the increase. Upper
ridging will build in from the west and highs should top out in
the 80s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

The start of the extended forecast will see a continuation of
warmer temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 80s from Monday
through Wednesday. A cold front will try to approach the Mid South
on Wednesday but will lose its eastern momentum as the parent low
lifts out of the central plains toward Ontario. The surface
boundary will get close enough for shower and storm chances to be
reintroduced Wednesday night but more so on Thursday. The surface
front looks like it will linger in vicinity of the area which
will keep rain chances elevated on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will gradually taper off after
00Z. Sky cover will also diminish overnight, and with light,
northerly winds, fog will be a concern. Best chance for fog along
with MVFR visibilities is at KCKV, KCSV, and KSRB likely between
04Z and 13Z. Conditions will improve after sunrise with VFR
areawide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      63  86  63  88 /  20   0   0  10
Clarksville    61  85  61  86 /  10   0   0   0
Crossville     58  79  57  80 /  30  10   0  20
Columbia       61  85  60  86 /  20   0   0  10
Cookeville     60  80  59  82 /  30  10   0  10
Jamestown      58  80  57  82 /  40  10   0  10
Lawrenceburg   61  83  61  85 /  30   0   0  10
Murfreesboro   61  85  60  87 /  30   0   0  10
Waverly        61  85  62  87 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......JB Wright
SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Clements