532
FXUS64 KOHX 131646
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1146 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1122 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

It`s pretty cool out there this morning with temps in the low to
mid 60s. Current radar imagery shows some very light and
scattered precip across the area. I would be surprised if any of
it was making it to the ground, though, as this morning`s balloon
launch shows a large dry layer above us. As the upper-level low
continues to scoot in, moisture will fill in and rain will likely
start making it to the ground this afternoon. The scattered
activity will continue through the afternoon. Instability should
stay on the low side, but can`t rule out a few rumbles of thunder
today.

For tonight, the latest CAMs are showing a line of thunderstorms
developing across west Tennessee overnight tonight around 3 to 4
am and pushing east through the area during the morning hours
Tuesday. While there won`t be much instability around during that
time, there could still be some thunder. Models show a second line
developing between 12pm-2pm Tuesday afternoon that could bring a
marginal severe threat, particularly to areas south of I-40.
Right now, the main threats with that line appear to be small hail
and damaging winds. I know with the recent bout of severe
weather, that`s not what people want to hear. On the plus side,
Tuesday looks like the only day (for now at least) of any
consequence...And the threat is marginal. 0-6km shear values will
be pretty low, lapse rates aren`t great (around 6 C/Km), and mean
instability is around 1400 J/KG.

Something else worth noting is that there could be a few heavy
downpours with PWAT values near 1.40" tomorrow. While flooding
isn`t a great concern, it will be something to monitor since the
ground is still so saturated and a few waterways are still very
full. That previous sentence goes for the whole forecast package,
both now and through the long term. Rainfall amounts Monday-
Wednesday will be anywhere from 0.5" to 1".

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1122 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Scattered activity will continue through Tuesday night and will
be slow to exit off the Plateau on Wednesday. We`ll have some more
scattered activity around as the surface low spins NE out of the
area. Looking aloft, ridging will start building in late Wednesday
night. This will provide temporary relief from the rain for at
least Thursday. This upper-air pattern is a progressive one,
though, and another upper-level low developing over the SW will
start pushing this way through the rest of the forecast period.
This translates to an active and unsettled weather pattern for the
weekend. Forecast rainfall amounts for Friday-Sunday range
anywhere from 0.5" to near 2".

Temperatures in the extended period will generally be in the low
80s for highs and overnight temps in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Predominantly VFR conditions currently, but widespread low cigs
are expected to move in by this afternoon. -SHRA is currently
moving in from the SW, which could bring periodic flight category
drops through the day. Additional -SHRA will move in this
afternoon with the low cigs, tried to time things out with FM
groups. Winds will remain generally from the south, becoming gusty
(~20kts) in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  64  78  63 /  40  60  90  90
Clarksville    72  62  76  61 /  60  80  90  80
Crossville     68  57  71  58 /  50  40  90  90
Columbia       72  63  77  61 /  60  80  90  90
Cookeville     72  60  74  60 /  50  40  90  90
Jamestown      72  58  73  58 /  40  50  90  90
Lawrenceburg   71  63  76  61 /  60  70  80  80
Murfreesboro   72  62  78  61 /  50  40  90  80
Waverly        72  62  75  60 /  50  80  90  80

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Adcock