987
FXUS64 KOHX 180145
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
845 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Water vapor imagery this evening shows a trough to our west over
the OK/AR area which will be moving eastward over our area
tomorrow. In the meantime, tonight`s 00Z sounding shows a
saturated atmosphere with a PWAT of 1.55 inches - not a daily
record, but over the 90th percentile for the date. This has
resulted in a few sprinkles persisting this evening, and this
trend is expected to continue overnight. As this trough
approaches, shower activity will become more scattered on
Saturday. A few thunderstorms will also be possible, and a few of
these may become strong with gusty winds and frequent lightning
the main threats. Otherwise, with plenty of moisture, patchy fog
and low clouds will be possible tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1119 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Showers continue to lift through Middle Tennessee this morning.
Showers are expected to become less numerous this afternoon
through the overnight hours. Patchy fog and low clouds will
develop overnight along with a couple scattered showers as the
trough axis remains to the west of the area. The trough axis will
slowly move eastward on Saturday with additional shower activity
possible and a couple of storms. The highest rain chances will be
along the plateau with lower chances the farther west you go.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1119 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Some patchy fog will be possible again Saturday night, otherwise
Saturday night should be mainly dry. A couple of showers can`t be
ruled out on Sunday along the plateau but elongated upper ridging
will build in from the west with temperatures rebounding into the
80s. Monday and Tuesday continue to look warm with highs getting
into the upper 80s and potentially touching 90 degrees. Models
have slowed down rain chances from Tuesday night/Wednesday to
Wednesday night/Thursday. This means Wednesday will be another
warm day with temperatures in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Wide flight category variations thru 18/24Z with lowest ceiling
threshold continuing to look like they will become established
after 18/06Z as calm to light north winds prevail. Continued with
previously mentioned TEMPO periods fog except BNA 18/08Z-18/13Z.
From 18/18Z-18/24Z looks to be best potential timing for tstm
development BNA/MQY/SRB/CSV. Although tstms could form/move
across, or in vcnty of terminals during this time interval,
addressed best potential of tstms per 2 hour TEMPO groups.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      64  79  63  86 /  40  80  20   0
Clarksville    62  79  61  85 /  30  70  10   0
Crossville     60  73  58  79 /  50  90  40  10
Columbia       63  79  62  85 /  40  80  30   0
Cookeville     61  75  60  80 /  50  80  30  10
Jamestown      59  74  58  80 /  50  80  40  10
Lawrenceburg   63  79  62  84 /  40  80  40   0
Murfreesboro   63  80  62  85 /  40  80  30   0
Waverly        62  79  62  85 /  30  70  20   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Clements
SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....JB Wright