205
FXUS64 KOHX 151735
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1235 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Areal coverage of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
should shift eastward as remainder of afternoon hours progress
with rainfall chances ending early evening hours Upper Cumberland
Region. Not expecting any strong to severe storms as of this time.
Upper level ridging influences will build into mid state region as
tonight through at least morning hours on Thursday with maybe a
stray shower or thunderstorm or two northwestern portions of our
area as afternoon hours on Thursday progress. Still looks like
afternoon highs temperatures today will span the 70s with lows
tonight mainly spanning the upper 50s. Highs on Thursday will
become even warmer as surface high pressure influences shift
southeastward into deep south. Highs on Thursday afternoon will
range low to mid 80s, upper 70s to around 80 for locations just
west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Showers and thunderstorm chances will return to our area as
Thursday Night progresses as more of a southwesterly upper level
flow pattern begins to develop with increased low level moisture
across at least western portions of our area. A better chance of
showers and thunderstorms is expected as Friday progresses. Some
strong thunderstorms may be possible during afternoon hours on
Friday. Lows on Thursday night will be quite mild in low to mid
60s, upper 50s to around 60 Cumberland Plateau Region with highs
on Friday returning to spanning the 70s. This unsettled weather
pattern will persist through Friday Night into at least first
part of upcoming weekend. Look for dry conditions to once again
return to our area as Saturday night through Sunday progresses.
Enough residual moisture with proximity to eastern fridges of
upper level ridging influences could support isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms across locations just west of and
across Cumberland Plateau Region Saturday Night into Sunday. Those
upper level ridging influences building in across our area will
result in quite seasonably warm temperatures by Sunday afternoon
with highs mainly in mid 80s, upper 70s to lower 80s for locations
just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region. Upper level
ridging influences will continue to build across our area as first
part of next work week progresses with warmest high temperatures
of spring season possible with highs potentially as high as the
lower 90s west of Cumberland Plateau Region by Tuesday afternoon.
Shower and storm chances will return to our area as Tuesday night
into Wednesday progresses. Total rainfall amounts from this
afternoon through next Wednesday afternoon will range from just
over an inch to around two inches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Cigs continue to bounce between VFR and MVFR. This will be the
trend through the majority of this taf cycle as a surface low
continues to move NE out of the area. Some widely scattered
thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon on the backside
of this low, but precip chances should greatly diminish after
00Z. Winds are primarily out of the WNW with sustained speeds
around 10 kts. Winds will become light and variable overnight.

Fog and LIFR cigs will likely occur at CSV and SRB overnight
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      61  84  65  77 /  10  10  30  90
Clarksville    58  83  64  75 /   0  20  50  90
Crossville     57  78  58  72 /  30  10  10  80
Columbia       58  84  64  75 /   0  10  30  90
Cookeville     59  78  60  73 /  30  10  20  80
Jamestown      57  77  58  73 /  30  10  10  80
Lawrenceburg   58  83  64  75 /   0  10  30  80
Murfreesboro   59  83  62  76 /  10  10  30  80
Waverly        57  83  64  74 /   0  10  50  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Baggett