Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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509 FXUS64 KOHX 170152 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 852 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 840 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Not a lot of change with this forecast update. High clouds are moving in over W TN as an upper trough continues to push E. Cloud cover will increase through the night followed by showers moving into Middle TN early Friday morning. Some thunderstorms are expected, but look to remain sub-severe with latest CAMs showing even less CAPE and shear than previous runs. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1126 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 KOHX radar is getting a break today with only some Cu and cirrus around this morning. Breaks in the clouds are expected to become more numerous this afternoon. Rain and storm chances will return tonight as upper ridging moves east and is replaced with southwesterly flow. Showers and storms will move in close to dawn. There should be a break in the showers and storms in the morning with a chance of more showers of storms in the afternoon and into the overnight hours as a broad trough moves toward the area. As far as severe potential on Friday, the potential looks low with marginal shear and CAPE values less than 500 J/kg. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1126 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 The trough will slow its eastward progress Friday night with the troughing influences lingering on Saturday with more showers and a storm or two. With the clouds and showers, highs on Saturday should stay in the 70s across the the area. The trough axis will move east Saturday night with northerly flow on Sunday. A couple of sprinkles are possible on Sunday mainly along the plateau. Upper ridging will build in from the west Sunday night with southerly return flow on Monday and Tuesday. With that, temperatures will warm well into the 80s on Monday and Tuesday, and we have the potential of touching 90 for the first time this year on Tuesday. A cold front will approach Tuesday night or Wednesday with showers and storms. Behind the front, temperatures will be slightly cooler. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 VFR conditions expected for the first half of this TAF cycle, then showers and thunderstorms will move into the area tomorrow morning. This should bring MVFR, then IFR cigs to all terminals. Minimally IFR is expected through tomorrow night once it arrives. Winds will be light and mainly southeasterly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 65 75 64 80 / 30 90 60 40 Clarksville 64 72 62 78 / 50 80 50 30 Crossville 58 71 60 73 / 20 90 60 60 Columbia 64 74 63 79 / 40 80 60 40 Cookeville 61 73 62 74 / 20 90 70 50 Jamestown 58 73 60 74 / 20 90 70 60 Lawrenceburg 64 74 64 78 / 40 80 60 50 Murfreesboro 63 75 63 79 / 30 80 60 50 Waverly 64 74 62 79 / 50 80 50 40 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Cravens SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Unger