306
FXUS64 KBMX 171824
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
124 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2024

A complex weather system continues across the area this afternoon,
with showers and thunderstorms ongoing south of a Demopolis to
Wetumpka to Auburn line. This activity, which has produced locally
heavy rainfall at times, has worked to stabilize the atmosphere
along and north. As such, we have trimmed the afternoon severe risk
to mainly the far southeast counties. Some model guidance suggests
potential for severe thunderstorms across mainly Pike and Barbour
counties through 6 PM this evening, but only if there is sufficient
atmospheric recovery from the last several hours of storms. Current
temperatures in that part of the state are mainly in the upper 60s
as of 1 PM. Sufficient shear is in place across the southeast and
only a modest increase in CAPE could lead to a potential uptick in
severe potential in this area.

Otherwise, much of Central Alabama will see mainly occasional rain
showers this afternoon, with lesser chances across the northwestern
tier. Patchy fog is possible in some areas overnight, especially
north and east.

Showers and thunderstorms will increase again during the overnight
hours, mainly in southern and southeastern counties. A QLCS/squall
line is expected to traverse parts of South Alabama and will need to
be monitored closely as to the northward extent of this activity
into the southeastern counties.

Tomorrow afternoon, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to
develop across Central Alabama ahead of an approaching trough.
Activity should initiate during the midday hours across the
northwestern counties and move eastward/southeastward across Central
Alabama into the late afternoon. Potential for SBCAPE values of 1000-
1500 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates around 7.0-7.2 C/km will support
strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail and damaging winds.

12

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2024

Saturday night and Sunday.

Showers and storms will be ongoing Saturday night as the system
begins to exit the area. Rain chances will quickly decrease from
west to east during the evening. The upper level low will then move
in Saturday night and exit by Sunday afternoon. A few models tries
to wrap some additional rainfall along the backside of the low, so
low chances remain in the area through Sunday afternoon.

Monday through Thursday.

Deep-layer ridging is depicted in medium-range & ensembles
thereafter, which supports a period of dry, warm weather that
appears to extend into early next week. Highs in the 90s could be
possible by then. On Wednesday we will begin to see the next system
take shape to our west. A shortwave will ride along that boundary
and clip our northern areas, with generally isolated to scattered
showers/storms. A wetter pattern looks to be shaping up for the end
of next week as the boundary stalls over the area.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2024

Thunderstorm activity will continue affecting TOI and MGM through
the afternoon. Ceilings are expected to drop during the afternoon
and evening hours at all terminals and remain at MVFR to potentially
IFR overnight/early morning. Vis will be lower across some sites,
especially MGM and TOI with morning shower and thunderstorm
potential and at other sites with morning patchy fog potential.

12

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Widespread rainfall and thunderstorms are expected through
Saturday, along with some lingering scattered activity hanging
around through Sunday. Minimum relative humidity values remain
well elevated through Sunday. Southeast to southerly 20 foot
winds increase to 8 to 10 mph today, and then become southwesterly
on Saturday. Drier conditions return by Sunday evening, with 20ft
winds becoming northerly at 5-10mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     62  81  61  84 /  40  60  30  30
Anniston    64  81  63  84 /  40  70  30  30
Birmingham  65  82  64  86 /  40  60  20  30
Tuscaloosa  65  83  64  87 /  40  60  20  20
Calera      65  81  65  85 /  40  60  30  30
Auburn      66  79  65  83 /  70  70  30  30
Montgomery  68  82  65  86 /  70  70  30  20
Troy        68  80  65  85 /  70  70  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...12