081
FXUS64 KBMX 172034
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
334 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2024

A complex weather system continues across the area this afternoon,
with showers and thunderstorms ongoing south of a Demopolis to
Wetumpka to Auburn line. This activity, which has produced locally
heavy rainfall at times, has worked to stabilize the atmosphere
along and north. As such, we have trimmed the afternoon severe risk
to mainly the far southeast counties. Some model guidance suggests
potential for severe thunderstorms across mainly Pike and Barbour
counties through 6 PM this evening, but only if there is sufficient
atmospheric recovery from the last several hours of storms. Current
temperatures in that part of the state are mainly in the upper 60s
as of 1 PM. Sufficient shear is in place across the southeast and
only a modest increase in CAPE could lead to a potential uptick in
severe potential in this area.

Otherwise, much of Central Alabama will see mainly occasional rain
showers this afternoon, with lesser chances across the northwestern
tier. Patchy fog is possible in some areas overnight, especially
north and east.

Showers and thunderstorms will increase again during the overnight
hours, mainly in southern and southeastern counties. A QLCS/squall
line is expected to traverse parts of South Alabama and will need to
be monitored closely as to the northward extent of this activity
into the southeastern counties.

Tomorrow afternoon, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to
develop across Central Alabama ahead of an approaching trough.
Activity should initiate during the midday hours across the
northwestern counties and move eastward/southeastward across Central
Alabama into the late afternoon. Potential for SBCAPE values of 1000-
1500 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates around 7.0-7.2 C/km will support
strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail and damaging winds.

12

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2024

An upper level short wave will rotate across north Alabama
Saturday night. Models indicate scattered storms developing across
north Alabama Saturday afternoon. Cloud cover on Saturday may
limit diurnal based instability, but cooling 500mb temperatures
will help produce surface based CAPE values around 2000-2500 J/kg.
Will maintain a marginal risk of severe storms for all of Central
Alabama Saturday afternoon and early evening, but areal coverage
of storms will be higher along and north of I-20. Rain should
dissipate by midnight Saturday night with mostly rain free
conditions Sunday through Wednesday. A building ridge early next
week will produce above normal temperatures.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2024

Thunderstorm activity will continue affecting TOI and MGM through
the afternoon. Ceilings are expected to drop during the afternoon
and evening hours at all terminals and remain at MVFR to potentially
IFR overnight/early morning. Vis will be lower across some sites,
especially MGM and TOI with morning shower and thunderstorm
potential and at other sites with morning patchy fog potential.

12

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Lingering showers and thunderstorms across south Alabama this
evening. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will track
across south Alabama after midnight. An upper level short wave
trough will bring a chance of thunderstorms to north Alabama
Saturday afternoon and evening. Max RH tonight above 90 percent
and Min RH on Saturday 65 to 70 percent. Decreasing rain chances
on Sunday along with warmer daytime temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     62  81  60  85 /  40  60  40  20
Anniston    64  81  62  84 /  40  70  40  30
Birmingham  65  82  64  86 /  40  60  40  10
Tuscaloosa  65  83  63  87 /  40  60  40  10
Calera      65  81  63  85 /  40  60  40  10
Auburn      66  79  65  83 /  70  70  30  20
Montgomery  68  82  65  86 /  70  70  20  10
Troy        68  80  63  84 /  70  70  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....58/rose
AVIATION...12