411
FXUS64 KBMX 181148
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
648 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2024

Southwesterly flow aloft persists this morning, with the trough
still to our northwest. Ripples within this moist flow have led
to another round of nocturnal showers and storms across south
Central Alabama. This activity will continue to push eastward this
morning, as enhanced mid level flow and low level jet shift
southeast of the area. The main focus for additional thunderstorm
development will shift south and east of the area later this
morning. The current morning activity will help stabilize the
airmass, limiting severe potential through the morning.

This afternoon, the trough will rotate across the area. Cloud
cover will limit diurnal based instability, but cooler 500mb
temperatures will push surface based CAPE values to 1500-2000
J/kg. Shear values are decreasing as wind fields weaken, but a
marginal risk of storms capable of producing large hail and
damaging winds is still justified for this afternoon and early
evening.

Rain chances will end this evening, as drier air finally works
into the area. With the presence of the trough nearby Sunday, a
few showers or storms could develop across the far east during the
afternoon, but expect any coverage to be isolated.

With widespread cloud cover and rain activity today, highs will be
in the upper 70s to lower 80s. With dewpoints near 70F, it will
continue to feel humid. Tonight, lows remain in the 60s and
depending on rain coverage, might need to add in dense fog in
future forecasts. With drier air arriving Sunday, highs will still
be in the lower 80s, but with a bit less humidity.

14

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2024

Early to mid next week appears warm and dry across the Deep South. A
low-level ridge is progged to establish across the eastern CONUS
with a broad zone of split upper-level flow. Southerly surface winds
return to our area by Tuesday as high pressure centers near the East
Coast, and this will help tilt afternoon highs into the 90s for some
locations Tue & Wed. Meanwhile a lingering surface front will drape
from near the ArkLaTex through the Ohio Valley on Thursday, behind a
departing Great Lakes low pressure system. Medium-range guidance
depicts this front near/north of the I-40 corridor, but with an axis
of higher PWs spreading into the Tennessee Valley. As such, there
could be isolated to scattered afternoon convection Thursday, but
better PoPs are on Friday due to a shortwave currently progged to
pass over the Tennessee Valley. It`s too early to tell if there will
be any impacts.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2024

Low clouds and fog have developed this morning, with conditions as
low as LIFR. Expect fog to lift over the next couple hours, as
cigs improve to MVFR. Variable winds this morning will become
southwesterly at 6-10mph through the day.

An area of rain is exiting extreme southeast central Alabama this
morning, and expect a lull in activity until closer to mid day. As
an upper level trough moves over the area, scattered to numerous
showers and storms are expected to develop through the afternoon.
Uncertainty on exact location, timing, and the possibility of
multiple waves of storms are any terminals all leads to an
extended period of PROB30s. Any convection could produce stronger
wind gusts and large hail.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

An area of showers and storms will move across south Central
Alabama this morning, before scattered to numerous showers and
storms are expected area wide this afternoon and evening. Min RH
values today will range from 65 to 75 percent, with southwesterly
20ft winds at less than 10mph. Rain chances decrease Sunday, and
along with warmer daytime temperatures, minimum RH values will be
in the 50 to 60 percent range. 20ft winds become north to
northwesterly, but remain at 5-8mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     78  61  83  61 /  80  50  20   0
Anniston    79  62  83  63 /  70  50  20   0
Birmingham  79  63  84  65 /  70  40  10   0
Tuscaloosa  81  63  86  65 /  60  30  10   0
Calera      80  63  84  65 /  60  40  10   0
Auburn      77  64  81  64 /  50  50  20   0
Montgomery  80  65  84  65 /  40  50  10   0
Troy        78  65  83  64 /  50  40  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....40
AVIATION...14