838
FXUS64 KBMX 180612
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
112 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will increase again during the overnight
hours, mainly in southern and southeastern counties. A QLCS/squall
line is expected to traverse parts of South Alabama and will need to
be monitored closely as to the northward extent of this activity
into the southeastern counties. Patchy fog is possible in some
areas overnight, especially north and east.

Tomorrow afternoon, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to
develop across Central Alabama ahead of an approaching trough.
Activity should initiate during the midday hours across the
northwestern counties and move eastward/southeastward across Central
Alabama into the late afternoon. Potential for SBCAPE values of 1000-
1500 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates around 7.0-7.2 C/km will support
strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail and damaging winds.

12

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2024

An upper level short wave will rotate across north Alabama
Saturday night. Models indicate scattered storms developing across
north Alabama Saturday afternoon. Cloud cover on Saturday may
limit diurnal based instability, but cooling 500mb temperatures
will help produce surface based CAPE values around 2000-2500 J/kg.
Will maintain a marginal risk of severe storms for all of Central
Alabama Saturday afternoon and early evening, but areal coverage
of storms will be higher along and north of I-20. Rain should
dissipate by midnight Saturday night with mostly rain free
conditions Sunday through Wednesday. A building ridge early next
week will produce above normal temperatures.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2024

Widespread low clouds cover the area tonight, with a mix of MVFR
and IFR cigs. Winds remain out of the southeast at less than 6kts.
An area of rain and embedded thunderstorms is spreading
northeastward with impacts at MGM expected to start the period.
This wave of convection will move across the area overnight,
mainly impacting MGM and TOI, with cigs IFR cigs expected at all
terminals. During the day Saturday, a focus of continued
convection will be across the southeast through the day, while a
second area of showers and storms is expected across northern
terminals. Will handle this activity with PROB30s.

Southeasterly winds will veer to the south and then to the
southwest during the day Saturday, with speeds less than 10kts.
Some improvement in cigs is expected by Saturday afternoon but
will keep cig heights less than 3kft through much of the
afternoon. Rain chances end from west to east through the late
afternoon/early evening.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Lingering showers and thunderstorms across south Alabama this
evening. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will track
across south Alabama after midnight. An upper level short wave
trough will bring a chance of thunderstorms to north Alabama
Saturday afternoon and evening. Max RH tonight above 90 percent
and Min RH on Saturday 65 to 70 percent. Decreasing rain chances
on Sunday along with warmer daytime temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     81  60  85  61 /  80  40  20   0
Anniston    81  62  84  62 /  80  40  20   0
Birmingham  82  64  86  64 /  80  40  10   0
Tuscaloosa  83  63  87  64 /  80  30  10   0
Calera      81  63  85  64 /  80  40  10   0
Auburn      79  65  83  64 /  70  40  20   0
Montgomery  82  65  86  65 /  70  40  10   0
Troy        80  63  84  64 /  80  40  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...14