706
FXUS64 KBMX 151146
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
646 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2024

The main lift has exited much of the area this morning associated
with a weak cold front that was moving through the area. We still
will see the upper low swing through this morning and into the
afternoon. Precipitation should be limited to the northeast
through the day, although an isolated shower could occur across
the northwest and southeast as well. Generally partly cloudy today
with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Most precipitation will
dissipate soon after sunset this evening and skies will clear.
There will be some wind around but we could see patchy fog again
tonight. Lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. A brief stint
of high pressure will move across the area on Thursday, allowing
for a bit more sun than today. Highs will be in the 80s areawide.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2024

A zone of west-southwesterly flow aloft is progged to stretch from
the Texas Gulf Coast through the Southern Appalachians by Friday
morning. This is associated with a positively-tilted upper-level
trough that extends into the Great Lakes with an embedded
disturbance/low nearing the ArkLaTex. While less clear in the low-
levels, latest guidance has trended farther north with a warm
sector, many of which depict an accompanying low-level jet
overspreading the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Friday
morning, gradually shifting eastward during the afternoon. This
would place Central Alabama in a favorable parameter space for
strong to severe thunderstorms considering low-level and deep-
layer shear with modest mid-level lapse rates. Various forecast
soundings now suggest MLCAPE <2,500 J/kg west of I-65. Hodographs
suggest supercellular storm modes are also possible.

However, there`s still much uncertainty about how things near the
surface evolve. There`s indication that morning convection could
disrupt the northward expansion of the warm sector, or at least
delay its recovery past peak heating, especially if convection
lingers across the I-10 corridor. There`s also uncertainty
regarding placement of surface boundaries and their respective
orientations. It`s for this reason that it`s also hard to clearly
define placement of flooding potential, though highest PWs and
soil moisture remain across the southern half of the area (thus
higher QPF there for now).

All things considered, and while I hate to say it, there is growing
concern for all severe weather hazards on Friday, with flooding
potential to boot.

In some capacity, lingering convection is forecast across southeast
Central Alabama into Saturday morning, though threats will have
diminished by then. The trough is progged to accelerate to the east
during this time along with the low-level jet. PoPs decrease quickly
west-to-east as a result. Deep-layer ridging is depicted in medium-
range & ensembles thereafter, which supports a period of dry,
warm weather that appears to extend into early next week. Highs in
the 90s could be possible by then.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2024

The cold front has moved through and now the upper low will slide
across the north. Winds pick up late morning to around 10 kts
from the northwest. Will need to monitor the afternoon for
convection at ANB/ASN but right now it appears to be to the north
of them. Some patchy fog will be possible again tonight and added
it in at TOI, ANB and ASN.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

We`re now transitioning to a northwesterly 20 ft wind today,
generally 5-10 mph, behind a departing system. Only a few rain
showers are expected this afternoon. Drier, warmer conditions
return to the area tomorrow with light northwesterly 20 ft winds.
Our next weather system moves into the area on Friday. This will
feature widespread rains and thunderstorms that will persist into
Saturday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     80  58  86  62 /  20  10   0  20
Anniston    80  59  86  64 /  20  10   0  20
Birmingham  80  60  87  66 /  20  10   0  30
Tuscaloosa  82  61  88  67 /  10   0   0  40
Calera      80  60  86  67 /  10   0   0  30
Auburn      80  62  86  67 /  10   0   0  20
Montgomery  83  61  88  67 /  10   0   0  30
Troy        84  61  88  66 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....40
AVIATION...16