Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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740 FXUS64 KBMX 160526 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1226 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2024 Dry air will filter into the area in the evening. Skies should clear through the night, with patchy fog possible in a few locations. Winds should be weakening through the night, so how quickly those winds weaken may determine where and how much fog develops. Thursday, high pressure moves across the southeast US with dry weather and mid level flow shifting from the northwest in the morning to the southwest by the evening. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s due to that northwest flow, and with mostly clear skies on Thursday, highs will be a couple of degrees above normal in the mid to upper 80s. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 412 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2024 The beginning of the extended will be wet and unsettled for Thursday night through Saturday evening as a second upper shortwave over OK/TX is expected to move NEWD across the Mid MS River Valley and TWD WV/VA by Sun morning. Model solutions continue to differ as to the strength of the positive tilted upper low/shortwave as it progresses across the ERN half of Conus. Instability ramps up as the morning progresses with the best severe chances in the afternoon and evening on Friday helped also by a low level jet. The extent of which will depend somewhat on the morning`s rains and recovery time afterwards. PWs are high with this event, and this will help to have some very effective rain producers. The highest amounts expected will be across the SRN half of the state. From early Fri through late Sat, anywhere from 1-3 inches of rain may be noted across the NRN half of C AL and 3-5 inches across the SRN half (with isolated locally higher amounts). Will be watching for some flash flooding and possible rises on area rivers over the weekend. 08 Previous long-term discussion: (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 349 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2024 A zone of west-southwesterly flow aloft is progged to stretch from the Texas Gulf Coast through the Southern Appalachians by Friday morning. This is associated with a positively-tilted upper-level trough that extends into the Great Lakes with an embedded disturbance/low nearing the ArkLaTex. While less clear in the low- levels, latest guidance has trended farther north with a warm sector, many of which depict an accompanying low-level jet overspreading the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Friday morning, gradually shifting eastward during the afternoon. This would place Central Alabama in a favorable parameter space for strong to severe thunderstorms considering low-level and deep- layer shear with modest mid-level lapse rates. Various forecast soundings now suggest MLCAPE <2,500 J/kg west of I-65. Hodographs suggest supercellular storm modes are also possible. However, there`s still much uncertainty about how things near the surface evolve. There`s indication that morning convection could disrupt the northward expansion of the warm sector, or at least delay its recovery past peak heating, especially if convection lingers across the I-10 corridor. There`s also uncertainty regarding placement of surface boundaries and their respective orientations. It`s for this reason that it`s also hard to clearly define placement of flooding potential, though highest PWs and soil moisture remain across the southern half of the area (thus higher QPF there for now). All things considered, and while I hate to say it, there is growing concern for all severe weather hazards on Friday, with flooding potential to boot. In some capacity, lingering convection is forecast across southeast Central Alabama into Saturday morning, though threats will have diminished by then. The trough is progged to accelerate to the east during this time along with the low-level jet. PoPs decrease quickly west-to-east as a result. Deep-layer ridging is depicted in medium- range & ensembles thereafter, which supports a period of dry, warm weather that appears to extend into early next week. Highs in the 90s could be possible by then. 40/Sizemore && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2024 VFR conditions expected through the forecast period, with scattered high clouds and light/variable winds through the period. High clouds will thicken late in the forecast period, with rain chances increasing after 17/06Z. 14 && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier, warmer conditions return to the area on Thursday with light northwesterly 20 ft winds. Our next weather system moves into the area on Friday. This will feature widespread rains and thunderstorms that will persist into Saturday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 87 62 78 63 / 0 30 80 70 Anniston 86 65 80 66 / 0 30 70 70 Birmingham 87 65 79 66 / 0 40 80 70 Tuscaloosa 88 65 81 67 / 0 50 90 60 Calera 87 66 80 67 / 0 50 80 70 Auburn 85 67 80 69 / 0 30 60 70 Montgomery 87 67 83 69 / 0 30 80 70 Troy 88 67 83 69 / 0 20 70 60 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...14