172
FXUS64 KBMX 180857
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
357 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2024

Southwesterly flow aloft persists this morning, with the trough
still to our northwest. Ripples within this moist flow have led
to another round of nocturnal showers and storms across south
Central Alabama. This activity will continue to push eastward this
morning, as enhanced mid level flow and low level jet shift
southeast of the area. The main focus for additional thunderstorm
development will shift south and east of the area later this
morning. The current morning activity will help stabilize the
airmass, limiting severe potential through the morning.

This afternoon, the trough will rotate across the area. Cloud
cover will limit diurnal based instability, but cooler 500mb
temperatures will push surface based CAPE values to 1500-2000
J/kg. Shear values are decreasing as wind fields weaken, but a
marginal risk of storms capable of producing large hail and
damaging winds is still justified for this afternoon and early
evening.

Rain chances will end this evening, as drier air finally works
into the area. With the presence of the trough nearby Sunday, a
few showers or storms could develop across the far east during the
afternoon, but expect any coverage to be isolated.

With widespread cloud cover and rain activity today, highs will be
in the upper 70s to lower 80s. With dewpoints near 70F, it will
continue to feel humid. Tonight, lows remain in the 60s and
depending on rain coverage, might need to add in dense fog in
future forecasts. With drier air arriving Sunday, highs will still
be in the lower 80s, but with a bit less humidity.

14

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2024

Early to mid next week appears warm and dry across the Deep South. A
low-level ridge is progged to establish across the eastern CONUS
with a broad zone of split upper-level flow. Southerly surface winds
return to our area by Tuesday as high pressure centers near the East
Coast, and this will help tilt afternoon highs into the 90s for some
locations Tue & Wed. Meanwhile a lingering surface front will drape
from near the ArkLaTex through the Ohio Valley on Thursday, behind a
departing Great Lakes low pressure system. Medium-range guidance
depicts this front near/north of the I-40 corridor, but with an axis
of higher PWs spreading into the Tennessee Valley. As such, there
could be isolated to scattered afternoon convection Thursday, but
better PoPs are on Friday due to a shortwave currently progged to
pass over the Tennessee Valley. It`s too early to tell if there will
be any impacts.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2024

Widespread low clouds cover the area tonight, with a mix of MVFR
and IFR cigs. Winds remain out of the southeast at less than 6kts.
An area of rain and embedded thunderstorms is spreading
northeastward with impacts at MGM expected to start the period.
This wave of convection will move across the area overnight,
mainly impacting MGM and TOI, with cigs IFR cigs expected at all
terminals. During the day Saturday, a focus of continued
convection will be across the southeast through the day, while a
second area of showers and storms is expected across northern
terminals. Will handle this activity with PROB30s.

Southeasterly winds will veer to the south and then to the
southwest during the day Saturday, with speeds less than 10kts.
Some improvement in cigs is expected by Saturday afternoon but
will keep cig heights less than 3kft through much of the
afternoon. Rain chances end from west to east through the late
afternoon/early evening.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

An area of showers and storms will move across south Central
Alabama this morning, before scattered to numerous showers and
storms are expected area wide this afternoon and evening. Min RH
values today will range from 65 to 75 percent, with southwesterly
20ft winds at less than 10mph. Rain chances decrease Sunday, and
along with warmer daytime temperatures, minimum RH values will be
in the 50 to 60 percent range. 20ft winds become north to
northwesterly, but remain at 5-8mph.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     78  61  83  61 /  70  40  20   0
Anniston    79  62  83  62 /  60  40  20   0
Birmingham  79  63  84  64 /  60  40  10   0
Tuscaloosa  81  63  86  64 /  60  40   0   0
Calera      80  63  84  64 /  60  40  10   0
Auburn      77  64  81  64 /  70  40  20   0
Montgomery  80  65  84  65 /  70  40  10   0
Troy        78  65  83  64 /  80  40  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....40/Sizemore
AVIATION...14