804
FXUS64 KBMX 121139
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
639 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2024

An upper level ridge axis will move across the area today, as
surface high pressure remains centered over the region. Expect an
increase in mid and high clouds in advance of a mid level warm
front that will lift into the area tonight, ahead of a trough
moving across the Plains. Highs today will be in the upper 70s to
lower 80s, with light and variable winds.

Surface high pressure will begin to pull eastward tonight as a
mid level warm front lifts across the area. Low level winds turn
to the south and moisture returns to the area. With that increase,
light rain will be possible across the southwest this evening
with coverage increasing overnight. Lows tonight will be in the
upper 50s to lower 60, with mostly cloudy skies.

Monday, upper level flow becomes southwesterly ahead of a trough
moving across the Mid Mississippi River Valley. Ahead of the
surface warm front, low level lift will result in more widespread
rain showers and maybe a couple thunderstorms. The more widespread
this activity is, the less likely the warm front is able to lift
northward, curbing any strong storm potential. Several model
solutions do show the greater convective coverage remaining to our
south on Monday. With the widespread rainfall and clouds, highs
on Monday will be in the upper 60s to lower 80s.

14

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2024

An upper-level low is forecast to slowly move east across the Mid
Mississippi Valley Tuesday morning, favoring forcing for ascent
across Central Alabama. This disturbance will coincide with ongoing
warm, moist advection across the Gulf Coast/Deep South with
southwesterly low-level flow. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
throughout the day as a result. Guidance suggests heavier convection
will likely favor the I-10 corridor throughout the day, though
there`s potential for enough instability (MUCAPE 2,000-3,000 J/kg
per the ECMWF/NAM) to support a few strong/severe thunderstorms
given 40-50 kts eff. bulk shear. Forecast hodographs are mainly
unidirectional, suggesting updraft splits with hail potential and
perhaps some damaging winds. This is a low-confidence forecast
considering uncertainties on how the system evolves, but is
warranted given the parameter space. The disturbance aloft is
progged to devolve into an open wave trough by Tuesday evening, with
the low-level jet moving off to our east. Convection will fade from
west-to-east Tuesday night.

While some wrap-around moisture could foster isolated showers on
Wednesday, conditions will be more stable with northwesterly flow.
Thursday will be another nice day weather-wise, with highs in the
80s. However, the next system remains on track to enter the area
Thursday night into Friday with potential for widespread showers and
thunderstorms. There`s also potential for additional severe weather
and flooding on this day that will be monitored accordingly.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2024

Dry conditions continue for about 12 hours, before rain chances
return to the area. Through today, high clouds will stream across
the area with light and variable surface winds, due to the
influence high pressure. After 06Z, rain chances increase
with cigs lowering to MVFR, then IFR.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain free conditions continue through much of today, before
showers return to the area this evening. More widespread rainfall
and a few thunderstorms are expected for Monday.

Today, light and variable 20ft winds are expected as high
pressure remains over the area. Min RH values will range from 28
to 35 percent in the northeast counties to 40 to 48 in the
southwest counties. 20ft winds increase from the southeast Monday
at 6-12mph, with minimum RH values well above critical threshold.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     81  57  71  62 /   0  40  80  70
Anniston    81  59  72  64 /   0  50  90  70
Birmingham  82  62  72  65 /  10  50  90  70
Tuscaloosa  82  62  74  66 /  10  60  90  70
Calera      82  62  73  65 /  10  50  90  70
Auburn      80  63  75  65 /  10  40  80  80
Montgomery  83  64  76  67 /  10  40  90  80
Troy        82  63  78  67 /  10  20  80  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....40
AVIATION...14