Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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845 FXUS64 KBMX 161750 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1250 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 255 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2024 One more day of quiet weather conditions as upper level ridging moves across the region and surface high pressure remains centered over the area. Winds will be light and variable today, with increasing high clouds. Highs will be in the 80s. Tonight, the upper level ridge axis will move to the east, as an eastward-moving shortwave enters the southern Plains and a leading upper level shortwave within southwesterly flow ushers in moisture and increasing low level southerly flow. A MCS will develop to our west and bring widespread rainfall and embedded thunderstorms to the area after midnight. By sunrise Friday, rainfall rates will increase with PWs over 1.5inches areawide. There is some uncertainty on where a band of heavier rainfall sets up, but the most likely area looks to be along and south of the I-20 corridor. The MCS will leave a boundary across the area, and as continued southerly flow pumps moisture into the area, instability will increase during the afternoon. As another impulse in southwesterly flow arrives, showers and storms will develop south of the morning boundary, with damaging winds and large hail the most likely threats. Storms will be efficient rain producers, and if activity tracks across the heavy rainfall areas from the morning, flooding chances will increase. It is possible that the Friday morning rain activity and cloud cover stabilizes the airmass for most of the day. If the second shortwave, Friday afternoon, results in convection along the Gulf coast, any severe potential for Central Alabama will be tempered, or at least confined to the southern tier of counties. For now, given the CAPE values over 1500J/kg and sufficient bulk shear values, will highlight a slight risk of severe storms for west Central Alabama Friday afternoon and evening, from roughly 2pm-11pm. 14 && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 255 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2024 Friday night through Saturday. A second wave of southerly moisture works into the area Friday night into Saturday morning. As the morning progresses rainfall becomes more widespread ahead of the upper low that will move through early Sunday morning. The consensus of the models indicate another 1 to 1.5 inches of rain with this swath of rain from generally north of Birmingham and to the the east. If this heavier band does develop and falls over the areas that receive the most rainfall on Friday then flooding may once again be a threat for much of the area on Saturday. Watches will likely be needed with the afternoon forecast update. Sunday through Wednesday. The upper level low exits most of the area by Sunday morning, however a few models tries to warp some additional rainfall along the backside of the low. Will keep in PoPs through the afternoon on Sunday. Deep-layer ridging is depicted in medium-range & ensembles thereafter, which supports a period of dry, warm weather that appears to extend into early next week. Highs in the 90s could be possible by then. On Wednesday we will begin to see the next system take shape to our west. A shortwave will ride along that boundary and clip our northern areas, with generally isolated to scattered showers/storms. A wetter pattern looks to be shaping up for the end of next week, but will be discussed over the next few days. 16 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2024 VFR conditions will continue through the short-term period and through much of the overnight hours tonight. SHRA activity is expected to increase between 09z and 12z Friday morning, with lowering ceilings to MVFR category. Also added PROB30 for TSRA with the morning activity as well, and amendments may be needed during this period to include prevailing TSRA once confidence increases. Also, IFR ceilings are possible once widespread SHRA activity moves across most of the terminal sites. Prevailing winds will be out of the north to northwest this afternoon becoming light or variable overnight. Southerly to southeasterly winds will prevail during the day on Friday under 10 knots. 56/GDG && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry and warm conditions expected today with light northwesterly 20 ft winds. Afternoon minimum RH values remain above 40 percent. Widespread rainfall and thunderstorms return to the area tonight through Saturday. Minimum RH values remain well above 50 percent through Saturday. 20ft winds increase from the southeast Friday at 8-10mph, and become southwesterly Saturday. Drier conditions return early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 64 75 64 81 / 30 80 80 90 Anniston 65 77 67 81 / 30 80 80 90 Birmingham 68 78 67 82 / 40 80 80 90 Tuscaloosa 68 78 68 83 / 60 90 70 80 Calera 66 77 67 81 / 50 90 80 90 Auburn 67 78 68 78 / 30 80 80 90 Montgomery 69 81 69 81 / 50 80 80 90 Troy 68 81 68 80 / 40 80 70 90 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...56/GDG