Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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391 FXUS64 KBMX 131937 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 237 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2024 A low pressure system will continue to move through the Ohio Valley with southerly low level winds bringing plenty of moisture to the area through tonight. For the rest of the day, clouds should remain mostly overcast with high temperatures well below normal for this time of the year in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Though most of the area should remain rain free through much of the afternoon and into the evening with stable cool air over the state, a few isolated strong showers could develop in the far east and south this afternoon into the early evening. Overnight tonight, another wave of storms moves through the southern half of the state. High res models have been consistent with strongest activity remaining south of Central Alabama and along the coast where a boundary sets up and lingers. Scattered moderate showers are possible in areas of I20 and south, with an isolated thunderstorm possible in the far southern counties. Little to no instability is present, though PW values will remain high and shear will be in the 50-60 kt range through the night. This activity is expected to begin shortly before midnight and last through much of the morning. Models have been consistent today with this activity remaining weak, with the storms along the coast cutting off most of the convection across Central Alabama. Recent model runs have been trying to hint at isolated showers and thunderstorms in the northern counties of Central Alabama. Will have to see how much activity develops across the Gulf to determine how much coverage could develop across the state overnight. There should be a break in coverage through mid morning and early afternoon, with isolated to scattered convection expected again through the afternoon and evening, mainly across the northern half of the state. PW values will be lower with this activity, only around the 75th percentile for this time of year, and shear will be slightly lower around 30 to 40 kts. The redeeming factor will be the instability between 1500 and 2000 J/kg. With these parameters, can`t rule out strong thunderstorms with a few possibly becoming severe. Highs Tuesday should remain a few degrees below normal again in the mid 70s to low 80s. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 214 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2024 A few lingering storms Tuesday evening, with drier air overspreading the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. An upper low tracking southeast across eastern TN on Wednesday may bring a few showers across the northeast counties of Alabama. Rain free conditions expected Wednesday night and Thursday as the upper low pushes off the Atlantic Coast. Another southern stream impulse will eject out of the Southwest United States and across the Gulf Coast region Friday and Saturday. With the slow progression of the upper trof axis, several impulses will bring periods of heavy rainfall from Louisiana to Alabama, with a threat of flooding. 58/rose && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2024 Several waves of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the state, with the next wave expected overnight through the early morning. Low level moisture is expected to increase and lower ceilings to IFR this afternoon through the end of the TAF period tomorrow. With low levels so saturated, any strong shower or thunderstorm that moves across the area could produce rainfall and limit ceilings and visibilities even further. 24 && .FIRE WEATHER... Scattered to numerous showers with few storms will overspread Central Alabama later tonight and into Tuesday morning. Rainfall amounts will be fairly light, generally less than one-quarter of an inch in most areas. Scattered storms possible Tuesday afternoon and evening with a chance of showers across the northeast counties on Wednesday. Max RH tonight near 100 percent and Min RH on Tuesday 70-75 percent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 63 75 60 80 / 50 60 50 20 Anniston 63 76 62 81 / 50 60 50 20 Birmingham 65 76 63 81 / 60 60 40 10 Tuscaloosa 67 80 62 84 / 60 60 20 0 Calera 65 77 63 82 / 60 70 30 10 Auburn 63 76 65 81 / 60 80 50 10 Montgomery 66 79 64 84 / 70 80 30 0 Troy 65 80 65 85 / 80 80 20 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....58/rose AVIATION...24