827
FXUS64 KBMX 130740
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
240 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 240 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2024

A positively-tilted trough is currently situated across the Plains
with at least 3 embedded vort maxes evident near Kansas on water
vapor imagery. This disturbance will continue east toward the Mid
Mississippi River Valley today and tonight. Meanwhile, a mainly
zonal 500 mb flow is situated across the Gulf Coast, sitting atop a
low amplitude ridge across the Gulf of Mexico. A broad zone of
isentropic ascent is analyzed across the Lower Mississippi Valley
where southerly 850 mb flow is situated. This is associated with
ongoing showers & thunderstorms overspreading much of central MS,
with light rain showers now developing across AL this morning.

Convective activity will continue to drift eastward with a MCS
progged to impact southern AL by mid this morning. Despite 50-60 kts
of 0-6 km bulk shear, SBCAPE remains pinned along the I-10 corridor.
This will keep severe threats suppressed to our south, and there`s
not much indication of low-level recovery throughout today in latest
guidance. As such, severe threats have been trimmed southward, and
latest QPF through tonight has had a similar response. A low-end
severe threat will be maintained in impact graphics, mainly for the
southern half of the area through ~Noon. Additionally, some
convective allowing models are suggesting non-thunderstorm wind
gusts above 40 mph this morning in response to a potential wake
low/pressure gradient. We`ll need to monitor for that.

By tomorrow the upper-level disturbance is forecast to continue east
closer to the TN and OH Valleys. Another wave of coastal convection
is expected to advance east toward Florida during the morning. This
will allow for some clearing skies and recovering instability during
the afternoon as temperatures warm into the lower 70s/mid 80s across
Central AL. Forecast soundings suggest colder temperatures aloft as
the disturbance approaches. MLCAPE <2,000 J/kg is possible with 40-
50 kts eff. bulk shear. Thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon will have the opportunity to produce hail, some at or
above 1", as well as a few damaging wind gusts considering DCAPE 800-
1,100 J/kg. Thus, the low-end severe threat for hail/wind remains in
place across the whole forecast area. Activity will wane after
sunset with drier air moving in from the west on the back side of
the departing trough.

40/Sizemore

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2024

The main trough slides through the area and a weak shortwave will
slide along the backside of the trough across the northern
portions of the area. With it moving through during the daytime
there will be a chance of isolated to scattered showers with a few
rumbles of thunder, through the afternoon hours on Wednesday. Dry
weather on Thursday, with the next system approaching the area
from the southwest late Thursday afternoon, with increasing rain
chances overnight Thursday night. Showers and storms will become
widespread on Friday with quite a bit of rain expected. Some model
differences right now on how many rounds of moderate to heavy
rain we can expect, but right now we may see 1 to 2 inches from
Thursday night through Friday night, with locally higher totals,
especially in the south. Wet conditions may linger into Saturday,
but most of the heavier activity will be south of the area. After
Saturday, models are all over the place with another shortwave
moving through or high pressure setting up, so will go with
climate for Sunday.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2024

An area of convection is moving east out of Mississippi toward
Central Alabama with embedded TS. As such, TAFs reflect current
VFR conditions to deteriorate toward ~12z to MVFR cigs with SHRA.
IFR conditions are also possible along with embedded TS, mainly
12-15z for TCL/MGM/TOI. Wind gusts are also forecast into the
afternoon. Additional convection is possible toward the end of the
TAF period, and it appears IFR cigs will be across all of Central
Alabama 03-06z. Winds should prevail a SE direction at 5-10 kts
through the TAF period.

40/Sizemore

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain with embedded thunderstorms will overspread Central Alabama
this morning and continue on and off through Tuesday afternoon,
before dissipating in coverage Tuesday night. 20 ft winds will be
southeast 7-10 mph today with Minimum RH values at 70-75 percent.
20 ft winds on Tuesday will be west-southwest at 7-10 mp with
Minimum RH values at 60-70 percent. Isolated to scattered
showers/storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon across the
northeastern areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  63  80  60 /  80  60  80  40
Anniston    72  63  79  62 /  80  60  80  40
Birmingham  72  65  80  63 /  80  60  70  30
Tuscaloosa  74  66  83  63 /  90  60  70  10
Calera      72  65  80  63 /  90  60  70  20
Auburn      72  65  79  64 /  90  60  70  30
Montgomery  76  67  83  64 / 100  70  70  20
Troy        76  66  82  65 /  90  70  70  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...40/Sizemore
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...40/Sizemore