673
FXUS64 KBMX 130543
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1243 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 853 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2024

No major changes in the forecast for tonight into tomorrow.
Increasing rain chances as an upper level wave moves in from the
southwest. I made some slight adjustments to the timing of rain
chances and adjusted the temperature trends tonight as we may not
drop as cool tonight given increasing moisture and cloud cover.

25/Owen

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2024

The initial area of scattered showers are expected overnight
tonight, moving into the southwestern counties shortly before
midnight. These showers will move to the northeast through the
early morning, increasing in coverage. A rumble of thunder could
be heard in this activity, but accumulations are expected to be on
the lighter side as moisture continues to advect into the state
with that southwesterly flow.

By early morning, sometime between 3 and 5 am, another area of
showers and thunderstorms is expected to move into west Alabama.
Models are trying to keep this area focused along the front and
in the southern half of the area, so will highlight the southern
half of the state for now to have the highest chances for stronger
storms with this second wave. CAMs have been fairly consistent in
showing a wake low type feature in the far southwest of Central
Alabama. If this maintains consistency, will need to keep an eye
on how far south this area of storms moves. Winds will be strong
with this feature, and damaging winds are possible. Instabilities
are weak, though 01 km shear is around 35-40 kts and 0-6 km shear
around 60-70 kts in the far southwest. PW values will easily be in
the 90th percentile or above for this time of year. Heavy
accumulations are expected with strong showers and any
thunderstorms.

This activity is expected to move east and southeast through mid
morning. There could be a break in the activity through the early
afternoon, though models diverge on how long of a break and how
much of a coverage of storms would develop later. Right now, have
included chances for scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms with instabilities rebounding slightly into the 500
j/kg range, and shear remaining strong around 40-50 kts.
Confidence is lower on timing and details of the afternoon storms,
so will need to keep an eye on what the overnight and early
morning system does, as well as how far north the morning feature
moves.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2024

A convective system will track across south Alabama Monday night
and into Tuesday morning. Models differ on track of this impulse
as the rain event on Monday will likely determine northward extent
of heavy rainfall Monday night/Tuesday. The NAM/GFS has the
higher rainfall amounts on Monday between I-85 and I-65, so any
residual instability will likely stay south of I-85 Monday night
and Tuesday. The models this season have consistently had a biased
northward extent of the warm front, so not buying any severe
threat north of I-65, with low end severe threat along and south
of the I-85 corridor. Heavy rain may be the higher threat Monday
and Tuesday. There will likely be a corridor of 3-4 inches with
locally higher amounts somewhere close to the I-85 corridor. Will
hold off on any flood watch at this time as the rainfall amounts
on Monday will help with confidence for flood threat. There will
be a lull in the rain Wednesday and Thursday, with the next upper
impulse arriving Thursday night and Friday.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2024

An area of convection is moving east out of Mississippi toward
Central Alabama with embedded TS. As such, TAFs reflect current
VFR conditions to deteriorate toward ~12z to MVFR cigs with SHRA.
IFR conditions are also possible along with embedded TS, mainly
12-15z for TCL/MGM/TOI. Wind gusts are also forecast into the
afternoon. Additional convection is possible toward the end of the
TAF period, and it appears IFR cigs will be across all of Central
Alabama 03-06z. Winds should prevail a SE direction at 5-10 kts
through the TAF period.

40/Sizemore

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain with embedded thunderstorms will overspread Central Alabama
tonight. 20ft winds will be east-southeast at 3-5 mph and southeast
7-10 mph on Monday. Max RH values tonight above 90 percent and
Min RH on Monday 70-75 percent. Rain, heavy at times, will
continue Monday night and into Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  63  80  60 /  70  60  80  40
Anniston    72  63  79  62 /  80  60  70  40
Birmingham  72  65  80  63 /  80  60  70  30
Tuscaloosa  74  66  83  63 /  90  60  60  20
Calera      72  65  80  63 /  90  60  70  30
Auburn      72  65  79  64 /  90  60  70  40
Montgomery  76  67  83  64 / 100  70  60  30
Troy        76  66  82  65 /  90  70  70  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25/Owen
LONG TERM....58/rose
AVIATION...40/Sizemore