657
FXUS64 KBMX 160858
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
358 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2024

One more day of quiet weather conditions as upper level ridging
moves across the region and surface high pressure remains centered
over the area. Winds will be light and variable today, with
increasing high clouds. Highs will be in the 80s.

Tonight, the upper level ridge axis will move to the east, as an
eastward-moving shortwave enters the southern Plains and a leading
upper level shortwave within southwesterly flow ushers in
moisture and increasing low level southerly flow. A MCS will
develop to our west and bring widespread rainfall and embedded
thunderstorms to the area after midnight. By sunrise Friday,
rainfall rates will increase with PWs over 1.5inches areawide.
There is some uncertainty on where a band of heavier rainfall sets
up, but the most likely area looks to be along and south of the
I-20 corridor. The MCS will leave a boundary across the area, and
as continued southerly flow pumps moisture into the area,
instability will increase during the afternoon. As another impulse
in southwesterly flow arrives, showers and storms will develop
south of the morning boundary, with damaging winds and large hail
the most likely threats. Storms will be efficient rain producers,
and if activity tracks across the heavy rainfall areas from the
morning, flooding chances will increase.

It is possible that the Friday morning rain activity and cloud
cover stabilizes the airmass for most of the day. If the second
shortwave, Friday afternoon, results in convection along the Gulf
coast, any severe potential for Central Alabama will be tempered,
or at least confined to the southern tier of counties. For now,
given the CAPE values over 1500J/kg and sufficient bulk shear
values, will highlight a slight risk of severe storms for west
Central Alabama Friday afternoon and evening, from roughly
2pm-11pm.

14

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2024

Friday night through Saturday.

A second wave of southerly moisture works into the area Friday night
into Saturday morning. As the morning progresses rainfall becomes
more widespread ahead of the upper low that will move through early
Sunday morning. The consensus of the models indicate another 1 to
1.5 inches of rain with this swath of rain from generally north of
Birmingham and to the the east. If this heavier band does develop
and falls over the areas that receive the most rainfall on Friday
then flooding may once again be a threat for much of the area on
Saturday. Watches will likely be needed with the afternoon forecast
update.

Sunday through Wednesday.

The upper level low exits most of the area by Sunday morning,
however a few models tries to warp some additional rainfall along
the backside of the low. Will keep in PoPs through the afternoon on
Sunday. Deep-layer ridging is depicted in medium-range & ensembles
thereafter, which supports a period of dry, warm weather that
appears to extend into early next week. Highs in the 90s could be
possible by then. On Wednesday we will begin to see the next system
take shape to our west. A shortwave will ride along that boundary
and clip our northern areas, with generally isolated to scattered
showers/storms. A wetter pattern looks to be shaping up for the end
of next week, but will be discussed over the next few days.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2024

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period, with
scattered high clouds and light/variable winds through the period.
High clouds will thicken late in the forecast period, with rain
chances increasing after 17/06Z.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry and warm conditions expected today with light northwesterly
20 ft winds. Afternoon minimum RH values remain above 40 percent.
Widespread rainfall and thunderstorms return to the area tonight
through Saturday. Minimum RH values remain well above 50 percent
through Saturday. 20ft winds increase from the southeast Friday at
8-10mph, and become southwesterly Saturday. Drier conditions
return early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     85  62  77  64 /   0  40  80  90
Anniston    86  65  78  67 /   0  30  80  90
Birmingham  87  66  78  67 /   0  50  90  80
Tuscaloosa  87  67  81  68 /   0  60  90  80
Calera      86  67  80  67 /   0  50  80  80
Auburn      85  67  80  68 /   0  20  70  80
Montgomery  87  67  83  69 /   0  40  70  80
Troy        88  67  83  68 /   0  20  70  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...14