334
FXUS64 KBMX 141732
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1232 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2024

A low pressure system will continue to move to the east across
the TN Valley this afternoon through tonight. Winds will be from
the southwest through the day, transitioning to the west tonight,
and then the northwest early Wednesday morning. This afternoon,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across the entire
area. CAMs are trying to show a greater coverage for activity
across areas along and north of I20 where instability values are
between 2000 and 2500 J/kg, though instabilities south of I20 will
be between 2500 and 3000 J/kg in the south and east. Would expect
greater forcing in the north, with greater diurnal effects in the
south for this afternoon and evening. Instability will be between
30-40 kts throughout the afternoon, with PW values near 90th
percentile for this time of year. Though scattered thunderstorms
are expected across the entire area, only a few are expected to be
strong to possibly severe if those storms can tap into the
instability and shear properly. Skies have been partly cloudy in
the southern half of the state, with temperatures much warmer and
highs anticipated in the low to mid 80s. In areas of the north
where cloud cover has been persistent this morning, high temperatures
will be in the mid to upper 70s.

Overnight tonight, as flow shifts to out of the west, drier and
cooler air will begin to advect into the state with activity
decreasing from west to east shortly before midnight. By early
morning, most activity should be east of the state, with clouds
beginning to clear from west to east. As the low pressure
continues it`s eastward trek, wraparound moisture and forcing
could cause isolated weak thunderstorms in the far northeastern
counties Wednesday afternoon during the day`s peak heating.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2024

A shortwave ridge will be on an easterly transit across the area on
Thursday, behind a trough departing into the western Atlantic.
Central Alabama will be rain-free and warm, with highs in the 80s
to near 90 in some southern locations.

An upper-level disturbance is progged to advance from the Southern
Plains toward the Mid Mississippi Valley Friday morning. This will
coincide with a broad zone of southerly to southwesterly low-level
flow overspreading the Gulf Coast and Deep South. As such,
isentropic ascent will be present leading to increasing clouds and
rain chances from west-to-east. Widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms are forecast by Friday afternoon with locally heavy
rainfall possible along and south of I-20 (latest QPF is 2-4" in
these areas). This scenario is not too dissimilar from our recent
weather event. Flow aloft is west-southwesterly overspreading much
of the Gulf Coast baroclinic zone. It appears the quasi-stationary
front will struggle to advance northward, and this leads to a
tendency for thunderstorms/higher QPF to dwell closer to the I-10
corridor. While we`ll maintain some messaging for locally heavy
rainfall/flooding Friday, there`s no current concerns for severe
weather given the scenario and the differing solutions still
present in medium-range guidance. Regardless, some convection is
forecast to linger Friday night into Saturday morning, gradually
drifting to the east with time. Drier, warmer conditions prevail
at the end of the period with a transition to northwesterly deep-
layer flow.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area
this afternoon and evening as a low pressure moves to the east.
Due to the low confidence of timing and coverage of activity, have
left in VCSH prevailing, and will update when thunderstorms begin
developing. Ceilings should become MVFR through the afternoon and
evening, then become VFR Wednesday as winds shift out of the west,
bringing drier air to the state.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening, with a chance of showers across the northeast
counties on Wednesday. This coincides with elevated moisture
values this afternoon and southwesterly 20 ft winds at 5-10 mph. A
transition to Westerly & northwesterly 20 ft winds is forecast
Wednesday and Thursday, with overall drier conditions Thursday
afternoon. Additional wetting rains are forecast on Friday with
thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     76  60  79  58 /  60  50  20   0
Anniston    76  62  79  59 /  60  50  10   0
Birmingham  77  62  80  61 /  50  40  10   0
Tuscaloosa  80  62  82  61 /  50  30   0   0
Calera      78  62  80  61 /  50  30   0   0
Auburn      77  64  79  62 /  60  50   0   0
Montgomery  82  65  83  62 /  40  40   0   0
Troy        80  65  82  62 /  40  50   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....40
AVIATION...24