391
FXUS64 KBMX 131937
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
237 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2024

A low pressure system will continue to move through the Ohio
Valley with southerly low level winds bringing plenty of moisture
to the area through tonight. For the rest of the day, clouds
should remain mostly overcast with high temperatures well below
normal for this time of the year in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Though most of the area should remain rain free through much of
the afternoon and into the evening with stable cool air over the
state, a few isolated strong showers could develop in the far east
and south this afternoon into the early evening.

Overnight tonight, another wave of storms moves through the
southern half of the state. High res models have been consistent
with strongest activity remaining south of Central Alabama and
along the coast where a boundary sets up and lingers. Scattered
moderate showers are possible in areas of I20 and south, with an
isolated thunderstorm possible in the far southern counties.
Little to no instability is present, though PW values will remain
high and shear will be in the 50-60 kt range through the night.
This activity is expected to begin shortly before midnight and
last through much of the morning. Models have been consistent
today with this activity remaining weak, with the storms along the
coast cutting off most of the convection across Central Alabama.
Recent model runs have been trying to hint at isolated showers and
thunderstorms in the northern counties of Central Alabama. Will
have to see how much activity develops across the Gulf to
determine how much coverage could develop across the state
overnight.

There should be a break in coverage through mid morning and early
afternoon, with isolated to scattered convection expected again
through the afternoon and evening, mainly across the northern half
of the state. PW values will be lower with this activity, only
around the 75th percentile for this time of year, and shear will
be slightly lower around 30 to 40 kts. The redeeming factor will
be the instability between 1500 and 2000 J/kg. With these
parameters, can`t rule out strong thunderstorms with a few
possibly becoming severe. Highs Tuesday should remain a few
degrees below normal again in the mid 70s to low 80s.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2024

A few lingering storms Tuesday evening, with drier air overspreading
the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. An upper low tracking southeast
across eastern TN on Wednesday may bring a few showers across the
northeast counties of Alabama. Rain free conditions expected
Wednesday night and Thursday as the upper low pushes off the
Atlantic Coast. Another southern stream impulse will eject out of
the Southwest United States and across the Gulf Coast region
Friday and Saturday. With the slow progression of the upper trof
axis, several impulses will bring periods of heavy rainfall from
Louisiana to Alabama, with a threat of flooding.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2024

Several waves of showers and thunderstorms will continue through
the state, with the next wave expected overnight through the early
morning. Low level moisture is expected to increase and lower
ceilings to IFR this afternoon through the end of the TAF period
tomorrow. With low levels so saturated, any strong shower or
thunderstorm that moves across the area could produce rainfall and
limit ceilings and visibilities even further.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered to numerous showers with few storms will overspread
Central Alabama later tonight and into Tuesday morning. Rainfall
amounts will be fairly light, generally less than one-quarter of
an inch in most areas. Scattered storms possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening with a chance of showers across the
northeast counties on Wednesday. Max RH tonight near 100 percent
and Min RH on Tuesday 70-75 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     63  75  60  80 /  50  60  50  20
Anniston    63  76  62  81 /  50  60  50  20
Birmingham  65  76  63  81 /  60  60  40  10
Tuscaloosa  67  80  62  84 /  60  60  20   0
Calera      65  77  63  82 /  60  70  30  10
Auburn      63  76  65  81 /  60  80  50  10
Montgomery  66  79  64  84 /  70  80  30   0
Troy        65  80  65  85 /  80  80  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....58/rose
AVIATION...24