Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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270 FXUS64 KBMX 170902 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 402 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2024 This morning, an MCS is moving through the northern Gulf, with heavy rainfall and thunderstorms along the coastline and light to moderate rainfall extending northward into Central Alabama. Aloft, westerly to southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching trough remains active, with several impulses aiding in convection today and tomorrow. This first wave of rain will move eastward this morning, with the stronger storms remaining to our south. This MCS has left a boundary stretching eastward through southern MS. Additional thunderstorms are already developing on that boundary and moving into southern Alabama. As southerly low level flow increases later this morning, this boundary will lift northward and be the focus for any strong to severe storms this afternoon and tonight, across south Central Alabama. CAPE values climb over 2000J/kg with 50kts of bulk shear would be supportive of strong to severe storms. Assuming the boundary lifts northward and storms become surface based, a slight risk of severe storms exists near and south of the Hwy80/I-85 corridor from noon til 11pm. Damaging winds, large hail, and a couple tornadoes are possible. In response to weak divergence and lift aloft, showers and storms are also expected to develop this morning across north Central Alabama. This activity is already occurring across north MS and western TN. Any activity across the north will prevent the southern boundary from lifting northward, and help suppress better quality instability to the south. This would limit the severe threat for Central Alabama. Also, rainfall totals have trended downward, and do not anticipate needing a flood watch. A lull in convection is expected overnight/early Saturday morning. However, the parameter space with the shortwave still to our west would be conducive for strong to severe storms, if activity can redevelop in the wake of activity moving out of the area. The trough over the southern Plains moves across the Lower Mississippi River Valley Saturday, and expect expansion of convection in response to lift from the trough, weak low level convergence (mainly north), and continued elevated instability. While coverage will be numerous areawide, the better chances of severe storms will be across the southeast, where the 850mb jet is enhanced, with development along the previous day`s convective boundaries. Threats would include damaging winds, large hail, and a couple tornadoes. 14 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2024 Saturday night and Sunday. Showers and storms will be ongoing Saturday night as the system begins to exit the area. Rain chances will quickly decrease from west to east during the evening. The upper level low will then move in Saturday night and exit by Sunday afternoon. A few models tries to wrap some additional rainfall along the backside of the low, so low chances remain in the area through Sunday afternoon. Monday through Thursday. Deep-layer ridging is depicted in medium-range & ensembles thereafter, which supports a period of dry, warm weather that appears to extend into early next week. Highs in the 90s could be possible by then. On Wednesday we will begin to see the next system take shape to our west. A shortwave will ride along that boundary and clip our northern areas, with generally isolated to scattered showers/storms. A wetter pattern looks to be shaping up for the end of next week as the boundary stalls over the area. 16 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 101 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2024 Unsettled weather is expected for this forecast period as a couple waves of rain and thunderstorms impact the area. Terminals start off VFR with the potential of MVFR/SHRA/TSRA by 12-14z. The rain and storms will move west to east through the day on Friday, with a few waves of activity possible at each terminal. Predominant ceilings will be MVFR with lowering to IFR during the afternoon. Winds will be light and variable through early Friday morning, then veer from southeast to south through the day at 5-10kts. 14 && .FIRE WEATHER... Widespread rainfall and thunderstorms are expected through Saturday, along with some lingering scattered activity hanging around through Sunday. Minimum relative humidity values remain well elevated through Sunday. Southeast to southerly 20 foot winds increase to 8 to 10 mph today, and then become southwesterly on Saturday. Drier conditions return by Sunday evening, with 20ft winds becoming northerly at 5-10mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 74 63 80 61 / 70 50 70 40 Anniston 75 65 80 63 / 80 60 70 40 Birmingham 76 66 81 64 / 80 50 70 30 Tuscaloosa 77 66 82 64 / 80 50 70 20 Calera 76 66 80 65 / 80 60 70 30 Auburn 77 67 78 65 / 80 70 70 50 Montgomery 81 69 81 65 / 80 70 70 30 Troy 82 69 79 65 / 80 70 70 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...14