079
FXUS64 KBMX 180016
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
716 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will increase again during the overnight
hours, mainly in southern and southeastern counties. A QLCS/squall
line is expected to traverse parts of South Alabama and will need to
be monitored closely as to the northward extent of this activity
into the southeastern counties. Patchy fog is possible in some
areas overnight, especially north and east.

Tomorrow afternoon, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to
develop across Central Alabama ahead of an approaching trough.
Activity should initiate during the midday hours across the
northwestern counties and move eastward/southeastward across Central
Alabama into the late afternoon. Potential for SBCAPE values of 1000-
1500 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates around 7.0-7.2 C/km will support
strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail and damaging winds.

12

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2024

An upper level short wave will rotate across north Alabama
Saturday night. Models indicate scattered storms developing across
north Alabama Saturday afternoon. Cloud cover on Saturday may
limit diurnal based instability, but cooling 500mb temperatures
will help produce surface based CAPE values around 2000-2500 J/kg.
Will maintain a marginal risk of severe storms for all of Central
Alabama Saturday afternoon and early evening, but areal coverage
of storms will be higher along and north of I-20. Rain should
dissipate by midnight Saturday night with mostly rain free
conditions Sunday through Wednesday. A building ridge early next
week will produce above normal temperatures.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 701 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2024

Early this evening, the terminals were at a reprieve from the
active weather. But the unsettled weather will continue into
Saturday. All terminals were reporting MVFR ceilings and these
ceilings will lower further during the evening hours. Mainly
between 05-10z, IFR ceilings and the mention of some
showers/storms reenter the forecast. These lower ceilings and rain
chances remain in through 16-19z and then we see the ceilings rise
to mainly MVFR. There may be a period where a few sites reach VFR
for a stretch. Showers/storms remain in through the end of the
period. Showers/storms finally trend downward Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Winds will remain light throughout with a
combination of variable and southwest.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Lingering showers and thunderstorms across south Alabama this
evening. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will track
across south Alabama after midnight. An upper level short wave
trough will bring a chance of thunderstorms to north Alabama
Saturday afternoon and evening. Max RH tonight above 90 percent
and Min RH on Saturday 65 to 70 percent. Decreasing rain chances
on Sunday along with warmer daytime temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     62  81  60  85 /  40  80  40  20
Anniston    64  81  62  84 /  40  80  40  30
Birmingham  65  82  64  86 /  40  80  40  10
Tuscaloosa  65  83  63  87 /  40  80  40  10
Calera      65  81  63  85 /  40  80  40  10
Auburn      66  79  65  83 /  70  70  30  20
Montgomery  67  82  65  86 /  70  70  20  10
Troy        68  80  63  84 /  70  70  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....58/rose
AVIATION...75