775
FXUS66 KMTR 121755
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1055 AM PDT Sun May 12 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1228 AM PDT Sun May 12 2024

A relatively quiet pattern will develop featuring overnight and
morning coastal clouds with clear skies elsewhere. Inland
temperatures will warm into the 70s and 80s each afternoon with
cool onshore breezes keeping coastal temperatures in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1228 AM PDT Sun May 12 2024

The marine layer has deepened appreciably with an inversion height
around 800 to 1200 feet per area profilers. Low stratus is
widespread early this morning with greater inland penetration as
compared to yesterday. For those hoping to view the Aurora your best
bet is to either head inland or into the higher terrain above the
marine inversion. Given the deeper marine layer we`re seeing much
less in the way of fog as compared to yesterday as cloud bases are
generally just a tad above the surface. The large-scale picture
features weak troughing aloft over the West Coast with downstream
ridging over the Desert Southwest region. This pattern will support
the continued deepening of the marine layer with a repeat
performance of low stratus tonight. For today, expect clouds to
gradually clear towards the coast with inland warming. High
temperatures will range from the 60s along the coast, to the 70s for
the marine influenced valleys, to the 80s for the warmest inland
locations. A few hot spots across southern Monterey County may even
eclipse the 90 degree mark. Temperatures tonight will be mostly in
the upper 40s to lower 50s, with readings a bit warmer in the higher
terrain inland.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1228 AM PDT Sun May 12 2024

Temperatures will cool slightly with onshore flow and weak troughing
aloft persisting. An upper ridge does build/strengthen over the
northeast Pacific by mid week, but it appears our area will remain
along its periphery with no strong signal for a warming trend. In
general high temperatures will range from the 60s along the coast to
the lower-mid 80s for the warmest inland areas. This will only
produce a minor HeatRisk for the warmest locations. Lows will
generally be in the lower to mid 50s. Coastal clouds are likely
during the overnight and AM hours with a gradual clearing towards
the coast each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 AM PDT Sun May 12 2024

Generally a repeat of yesterday in terms of the extent of marine
stratus. As expected, saw slightly less FG impacts and higher cigs
this morning due to marine layer expansion. However, many
locations still dealing with IFR cigs and slow to clear this
morning. Expecting stratus to linger along coastal areas through
the day today with CLR conditions over land. High confidence in a
relatively early return of stratus to most terminals tonight.

Vicinity of SFO...Clearing conditions to VFR late this morning.
Marine stratus will likely linger along the coast, Golden Gate,
and near the San Bruno Gap most of the day. High confidence in IFR
cigs returning overnight, though timing for them to make it around
to the terminal remains moderate confidence. Otherwise typical
diurnal onshore flow.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Fairly effective clearing of stratus for
much of the areas away from the immediate coastline. Expecting
inland areas to remain mostly CLR today, but marine stratus
will linger along coastal areas through much of today. Some areas
along the coast, especially the southern Monterey Bay, may see
periodic recurrence of IFR cigs through this afternoon as an eddy
that has formed in the Bay could essentially waft the clouds back
and forth over the terminals.


&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1055 AM PDT Sun May 12 2024

Fair weather continues for the waters of Central California
through the week as high pressure builds over the Eastern Pacific.
Northwest winds begin to increase this evening to a fresh breeze.
Seas build to 12 to 15 feet by Tuesday before gradually abating
through the rest of the week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 719 PM PDT Fri May 10 2024

Long period southwest swell will lead to slightly elevated chances
for sneaker wave and rip current development this weekend.
Conditions are expected to stay below Beach Hazards Statement
criteria as swell height will only be between 1-2 feet. However, in
light of anomalously warm temperatures and increased likelihood of
people traveling to the coast, visitors to the beach should remember
to take safety precautions to prevent being caught by an unexpected
large wave and to never turn your back on the ocean.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Monday for Mry Bay-Pt
     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Monday
     for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Monday
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPM
LONG TERM....SPM
AVIATION...Behringer
MARINE...Behringer

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