815
FXUS66 KMTR 151146
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
446 AM PDT Wed May 15 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 115 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024

Relatively calm and quiet weather pattern persists through the
forecast period bringing a repeat of morning marine stratus along
the coast and valleys and clear skies elsewhere. Inland
temperatures warm into the 70s and 80s each afternoon with a
persistent marine layer keeping coastal highs in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1206 AM PDT Wed May 15 2024

High pressure over the northeast Pacific will nudge a bit closer to
the Bay Area and Central Coast as low pressure aloft weakens over
northern Baja. The marine layer remains rather consistent early this
morning in the 1.5-2 kft range, which is similar to yesterday. With
slightly greater influence from the ridge expect the top of the
marine temperature inversion to either hold steady or compress a bit
over the next 24 hours. Regardless, there are no real meaningful
changes to the forecast. Expect morning clouds to gradually retreat
back towards the coast by early afternoon with sun returning for
most areas. This will allow high temperatures to reach the 70s and
80s inland, with 60s for the immediate coast and bays. Low stratus
clouds will spread back inland this evening with mostly cloudy
conditions returning overnight. Lows will be mostly in the lower to
mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1206 AM PDT Wed May 15 2024

The upper level ridge will gain slight prominence through Thursday,
however we will remain along its periphery with a minimal
increase in temperatures inland. Readings will range from the 60s
along the coast to the upper 80s for the warmest inland valleys. A
few hot spots may crack the 90 degree mark. Lows will be mostly
in the 50s. The daily ebb and flow of coastal clouds will
continue, with coverage spreading inland each night with a gradual
retreat towards the coast by afternoon. The upper level pattern
may transition more towards troughing by early next week but dry
weather still looks to be the most probable forecast outcome.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 443 AM PDT Wed May 15 2024

Currently seeing a mix of LIFR-VFR at the terminals. Widespread VFR
and onshore flow will prevail by this afternoon. LIFR-MVFR stratus
is slated to return to most terminals towards the end of the TAF
period with LVK and SJC not being included until the next TAF
cycle.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently MVFR with breezy westerly flow.
Models/guidance are suggesting that winds will be offshore 16Z-19Z,
returning to westerly flow by 21Z. VFR and westerly flow will
prevail by this afternoon. A low-end MVFR ceiling is slated to
impact the terminal again overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently LIFR with southwesterly flow at
MRY and IFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. VFR will prevail by this
afternoon. Winds will remain onshore through the TAF period. LIFR
and IFR conditions are slated to return to MRY and SNS respectively
again tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 443 AM PDT Wed May 15 2024

As surface high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean slightly
weakens and retrogrades to the west, the pressure gradient will
relax, moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes will prevail, and
significant wave heights will continue to abate through Thursday.
By  Friday this surface high pressure builds and moves east,
increasing  northwesterly breezes and building wave heights
through the weekend  and into next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPM
LONG TERM....SPM
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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