153
FXUS66 KMTR 152007
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
107 PM PDT Wed May 15 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1232 PM PDT Wed May 15 2024

Quiet weather will continue with a persistent marine layer through
the forecast period. Morning clouds and mist will clear in the
afternoon. Despite the clearing, coastal areas will remain in the
cool marine air, keeping highs in the 60s. Inland and high
elevation areas will reach the 70s and 80s each afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1232 PM PDT Wed May 15 2024

The stratus is clearing on schedule and should return this
evening. The marine layer is currently around 1500-2000 ft deep
as identified by a sharp low level inversion on the 12Z sounding
and current observations from area profilers. NAM point soundings
suggests the marine layer will compress to around 800 ft over the
next 18 hours. This will cause a lower cloud deck Thursday, with
more areas impacted by mist and fog. It will also limit the extent
of the marine layer, keeping more inland areas in the sun and the
warmer continental air mass. Otherwise, the weather pattern is
pretty stable with mild temperatures and a weak pressure gradient
producing light to gentle winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1232 PM PDT Wed May 15 2024

The current pattern will remain fairly stable through Sunday. Low
clouds in the morning along the coast and adjacent valleys will
clear by mid-day. High temperatures will be stuck in the 60s for
areas in the marine layer, and in the 80s for the warmest inland
valleys. Lows will mostly be in the 50s. By early next week, the
global models agree that the jet stream, which has been running
E-W across the PNW, will become meridional, with a long wave
trough taking aim at California. This trough pattern will persist
through next week, bringing a few weak cold fronts, some cooler
weather, periods of stronger NW winds, and even the chance for
some very light rain, although the air mass looks pretty dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1039 AM PDT Wed May 15 2024

Satellite shows the stratus continues to retreat back to the coast.
Therefore, a mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions over the terminals.
Conditions should improve shortly after 18Z for all terminals but
another round of stratus is expected tonight bringing a mix of
MVFR/IFR/LIFR with clearing near 17-18Z again Thursday morning.
Winds will become relatively breezy in the afternoon, but will
return to light to moderate this evening.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR with light winds. Winds will start to build to
breezy and turn onshore by the afternoon. MVFR conditions will
return overnight with clearing near 17Z. Winds become light to
moderate overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR ceilings have lifted from KMRY to IFR.
Therefore, both terminals should clear near 18Z. VFR should prevail
until tonight where a mix of LIFR and IFR conditions will return.
Winds will become breezy this afternoon, and return to light to
moderate overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1232 PM PDT Wed May 15 2024

As surface high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean slightly
weakens and retrogrades to the west, the pressure gradient will
relax, moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes will prevail, and
significant wave heights will continue to abate through Thursday.
By  Friday this surface high pressure builds and moves east,
increasing  northwesterly breezes and building wave heights
through the weekend  and into next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Flynn
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...Flynn

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