Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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088 FXUS66 KMTR 162350 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 450 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1227 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024 Quiet weather continues with a persistent marine layer through the weekend. Calm and cloudy mornings will transition to breezy and clear afternoons. A weak cold front will move through next week, bringing stronger westerly winds and cooler inland temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 1227 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024 Stratus is continuing to clear. SW flow is delaying the clearing in Santa Cruz, Marin, and Sonoma counties, but there should be a few hours of sunshine before the next round of clouds develop this evening. The marine layer is quite deep, with the Ft. Ord profiler showing marine air from the surface to roughly 2,200 ft. This is quite a bit deeper than models suggest, which has led to some issues with the forecast. Not only are the deeper clouds penetrating further inland than expected, some of the thicker cloud decks have been producing measurable drizzle and light rain in Monterey, Santa Cruz and Napa counties early this morning. The forecast was adjusted to show a 15% chance of rain and 0.01" QPF for these areas tomorrow, as there is no synoptic reason for the marine layer to compress very much. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1227 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024 The same pattern will continue through the weekend with cloudy mornings and clear afternoons. The jet stream will take a dip south next week, causing a transition to a troughing pattern early next week. This pattern looks to persist through the week and will bring a few weak cold fronts, cooler temperatures, and breezy NW winds. Coastal drizzle may become a bit more prominent at times as well. High temperatures will reamin in the 60s along the coast, but will cool to the 70s inland. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 430 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024 Relatively light westerly surface winds will continue across our area, with the onshore flow producing another night of MVFR/IFR stratus ceilings persisting through the late morning hours on Friday, with mostly VFR expected Friday afternoon. Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions currently will eventually give way to MVFR/IFR with low stratus clouds gradually moving inland over the terminal by late this afternoon and early evening tonight and persisting through the overnight hours into late morning tomorrow. Clouds will clear by early afternoon Friday with VFR through the remainder of the TAF period. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Current VFR conditions will drop to IFR later this evening as the marine boundary stratus moves inland with relatively light westerly surface winds persisting through the forecast period. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1034 AM PDT Thu May 16 2024 Surface high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean shift eastward towards California. As a result, the pressure gradient will tighten and northwesterly winds will increase, particularly over the northernmost zones and outer waters. Significant wave heights will build to very rough over the outer waters through early next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Flynn LONG TERM....Flynn AVIATION...JM MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea