177
FXUS66 KMTR 131945
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1245 PM PDT Mon May 13 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1217 PM PDT Mon May 13 2024

Relatively quiet pattern persists through the forecast period with
morning marine stratus and clear skies elsewhere. Inland
temperatures warm into the 70s and 80s each afternoon with a
persistent marine layer keeping coastal highs in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1217 PM PDT Mon May 13 2024

A weak upper low continues to slowly traverse into the southwest
US while gradually deepening our marine layer. The main result of
this will be a slightly greater extent of marine stratus inland.
However, the overall pattern continues to be dominated by a stout
longwave ridge over the Eastern Pacific, so afternoons will be
clear across the area with stratus lingering along coastal areas.
Afternoon highs in the 70s for most and 60s along the coast.
Farther inland locations such as southern Monterey county eastern
Contra Costa county, and northern Napa counties will see highs in
the mid-to-upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1217 PM PDT Mon May 13 2024

Through midweek, the ridge pattern strengthens slightly as the
weak upper low pulls away. Though the ridge influence will be
dominant, we remain on the periphery, so there is no strong signal
for a pronounced warming trend through the week. Instead,
afternoon highs will increase just by a few degrees from midweek
into the weekend. Most areas will see the mid-70s with inland
locations in the lower 80s. A few of the aforementioned warmest
locations have a shot at hitting the 90 degree mark. Lows will
generally be in the lower to mid 50s. Coastal clouds are likely
during the overnight and AM hours with a gradual clearing towards
the coast each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM PDT Mon May 13 2024

Stratus will continue to recede through the morning. Towards noon,
most terminals are expected to achieve VFR conditions. The one
question will be KMRY, but otherwise expecting widespread clearing.
Winds onshore and breezy this afternoon, then easing to become light
into the nighttime. Stratus makes an early return for most terminals
in the evening, bringing IFR/LIFR CIGs. IFR/LIFR lasts through the
late morning of Tuesday for most terminals.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions last through the late afternoon,
though stratus is expected to make a return in the early to mid
evening. Stratus CIGs are expected to be on the cusp of MVFR/IFR,
but are generally expected to decrease to become IFR by the late
night tonight. IFR conditions last through the later morning of
Tuesday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...CIGs at this hour have lifted to become
MVFR, with satellite continuing to show stratus receding back to the
coastline. Briefly this afternoon, enough clearing is expected to be
achieved to reach VFR, though confidence on this is only moderate.
Any VFR will be short lived, as stratus is expected to make a strong
push in the late afternoon today to come back onshore. LIFR
conditions are then expected to last through the morning of Tuesday,
with visibilities decreasing significantly through the night as
CIGs lower and fog develops.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1211 PM PDT Mon May 13 2024

  Fresh breezes out of the northwest continue through at least the
midweek, then ease to become gentle to moderate, and more
southwesterly. Fair weather will prevail, though marine stratus
will create overcast skies through much of the week. Significant
wave heights will continue to build to 12-15 feet in the northern
outer waters by Tuesday. Wave heights then gradually diminish
into the late week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-Pt
     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Tuesday
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AC

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