519
FXUS66 KMTR 171732
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1032 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024

Quiet weather persists. Widespread stratus coverage dissipating
by mid to late morning with breezy, clear conditions developing by
the afternoon. Heading into the weekend, stratus coverage will be
diminished with stratus primarily confined to coastal regions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024

Light drizzle has been reported over the region this morning with
amounts up to 0.02" across the North Bay, San Francisco
Peninsula, Santa Cruz, and around the Monterey Bay region. Given
the deep marine layer in place, temperatures will struggle to
reach into the 80`s with only places such as the far interior
Salinas Valley and North Bay Valleys hitting that mark. Otherwise,
low clouds will retreat back to the coast by mid-to-late morning
giving way to mostly sunny sky conditions this afternoon. Overall,
the forecast remains on track with no updates anticipated at this
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024

Widespread stratus has returned. Current observations show no major
impacts to visibility inland with a few stations reporting reduced
visibilities directly along the coast. The marine layer has
continued to deepen with the Ford Ord Coastal Profiler showing the
top of the marine layer at ~3000 ft. Expect light drizzle overnight
in coastal areas with little to no accumulation anticipated - any
drizzle that does accumulate will be less than a few hundredths of an
inch. Inland s stratus coverage will dissipate by mid-morning with
temperatures warming into the 70`s. Along the coast, stratus
coverage will linger through the late morning/early afternoon with
temperatures staying on the cooler side in the upper 50`s to low
60`s. Friday night - inland stratus intrusions are expected to be
minimal with stratus primarily confined along the coast as the
marine layer continues to deepen.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024

Heading into the late weekend, the 500mb pattern shows a transition
from upper level zonal flow to troughing as a surface low pressure
system moves northeast of the Bay Area. This will enable the
developing deeper marine layer to persist through the week and limit
stratus intrusions to coastal regions. A slight inland warming trend
develops throughout the early work week as decreased morning cloud
coverage will lead to increased surface warming. Inland high
temperatures will largely stay in the mid to upper 70`s with the
warmest regions reaching the low 80`s. No major changes to coastal
temperatures with stratus coverage limiting surface warming and
keeping temperatures in the upper 50`s to mid 60`s. Minor heat risk
is possible Monday and Tuesday across inland portions of the Bay
Area and Salinas Valley. For individuals sensitive to heat, remember
to take breaks when outdoors and drink plenty of water. Otherwise,
this weekends weather looks warm and pleasant so take advantage and
enjoy it!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1032 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024

Satellite shows the stratus remains pretty socked in for most
terminals, with slow retreat back to the coast. Therefore, a mix of
VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions over the terminals. Conditions should
improve between 18-19Z for most terminals. Models show some
disagreement on stratus return tonight. Moderate confidence that
KSTS, KAPC, KMRY and KSNS will see anywhere between MVFR-IFR
conditions, as the remainder terminals may only see VFR,
borderline MVFR conditions tonight. A SCT group is included in
KOAK, KSFO, KSJC, and KLVK to hint at the possibility of low
stratus. Winds will become relatively breezy in the afternoon, but
will return to light to moderate this evening.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR with light SE winds but winds will start to
build to breezy and turn onshore by the afternoon. Models hint at
MVFR conditions returning overnight, but had low confidence to
include in TAFs at this moment. Winds become light to moderate
overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR, with ceilings continuing to lift.
Expect VFR between 19-20Z. High confidence that low ceilings will
return tonight to MVFR criteria, with possible IFR conditions
throughout the night. Winds will become breezy by the afternoon and
return to light to moderate tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 849 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024

Northwesterly winds continue to increase through the day,
particularly over the northernmost zones with gale-force gusts
expected in the northern outer waters. Gale-force winds start to
move closer to some of the southern zones into the weekend.
Rougher seas are expected for the outer waters starting this
weekend and lasting well into the next work week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...SO

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