642
FXUS66 KMTR 142021
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
121 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 115 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024

Relatively calm and quiet weather pattern persists through the
forecast period bringing a repeat of morning marine stratus along
the coast and valleys and clear skies elsewhere. Inland
temperatures warm into the 70s and 80s each afternoon with a
persistent marine layer keeping coastal highs in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 115 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024

Calm weather persists as the low pressure system that sits near
southern California continues to move inland and the ridging pattern
slightly strengthens. Overnight temperatures will be similar to last
night with minimum temperatures reaching in the high 40s to mid 50s.
Wednesday afternoon, temperatures will warm by a few degrees with
inland areas seeing up to mid 70s to low 80s, while the coast will
see temperatures in the 60s. Coastal stratus is expected to rebuild
again tonight as the marine layer still sits about 1,500-2,000 feet
near Ft. Ord. Therefore, don`t be surprise to see another gloomy
morning along the coast and in the valleys with clearing in the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 115 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024

The low pressure system sitting along the southwest of CONUS will
continue to move eastward, allowing for a broad high pressure system
over the ocean to slightly influence the area. This will bringing
overall calm weather with some clear skies in the interior areas and
some gloomy morning near the coast from the onshore flow. This
pattern of cloudy mornings and clear skies by the afternoon for the
coastal areas will likely repeat itself through the remainder of the
week into Monday, with a slight chance of early morning drizzle in a
few spots along the coast. The max temperatures will remain in the
60s along the coast, with interior areas reaching up to the mid 70s
to mid 80s. The minimum temperatures overnight will stay relatively
the same through the week with high 40s to mid 50s.

By Sunday through Monday, another low pressure system off the coast
will start to move closer to region. This will bring slightly cooler
temperatures inland. Model ensembles show agreement that no
precipitation will be associated with this troughing pattern thus far,
and calm dry weather will continue into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1042 AM PDT Tue May 14 2024

The stratus extent was very similar to yesterday. Not
surprisingly, the burn off time has also been pretty close to
yesterday, with most sites either back to VFR or well on their way
within the hour. Some strong onshore winds will develop this
afternoon before stratus returns overnight.

Vicinity of SFO...The stratus has cleared from SFO, SJC, and OAK.
Onshore winds will develop early this afternoon and persist
through the evening. The models have been underperforming with
the sea breeze lately and the TAFs are a few knots higher this
afternoon as a result. Stratus will return overnight with similar
ceilings expected as weak low pressure aloft maintains a fairly
deep marine layer.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MRY and SNS are still dealing with IFR
stratus this morning. The skies are expected to clear by 19 UTC.
The VFR window will only last for about 8 hours before the low
clouds make an early return this evening. According to GFSLAMP
probabilities, MRY has a 50% chance of regaining an IRF ceiling as
early as 02Z. The visibility may briefly drop as well, but some
gentle winds overnight may help prevent that.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1042 AM PDT Tue May 14 2024

Rough seas are abating today as the pressure gradient slackens
and winds decrease. A moderate NW swell will continue to keep
significant wave heights elevated and small craft advisories
active in the far NW coastal zone. Otherwise, favorable
conditions will persist into the weekend, with stronger NW winds
expected next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to
     Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SO
LONG TERM....SO
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...Flynn

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea