Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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291 FXUS66 KMTR 172009 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 109 PM PDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 108 PM PDT Fri May 17 2024 Quiet weather persists. Widespread stratus coverage dissipating by mid-to-late morning with breezy, clear conditions developing by the afternoon. Heading into the weekend, stratus coverage will be diminished with stratus primarily confined to coastal regions and down into the Salinas Valley. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 108 PM PDT Fri May 17 2024 Low clouds continue to erode across most inland areas as of early afternoon, but are still hanging on around the Monterey Bay region and adjacent valleys, Santa Cruz Mountains, and coastal areas of the North Bay. Tonight, expecting less inland penetration of stratus across the North Bay and the greater San Francisco Bay Area. However, stratus will spread back inland and down into the Salinas Valley (and adjacent valleys). Where stratus does develop, drizzle will remain possible again tonight into Saturday morning. Morning cloud cover will retreat back to the coast by mid-to-late morning or early afternoon. Saturday will be seasonably cool with temperatures near the coast in the upper 50`s to mid 60`s and mid 60`s to upper 70`s inland across the far interior. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 250 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024 Heading into the late weekend, the 500mb pattern shows a transition from upper level zonal flow to troughing as a surface low pressure system moves northeast of the Bay Area. This will enable the developing deeper marine layer to persist through the week and limit stratus intrusions to coastal regions. A slight inland warming trend develops throughout the early work week as decreased morning cloud coverage will lead to increased surface warming. Inland high temperatures will largely stay in the mid to upper 70`s with the warmest regions reaching the low 80`s. No major changes to coastal temperatures with stratus coverage limiting surface warming and keeping temperatures in the upper 50`s to mid 60`s. Minor heat risk is possible Monday and Tuesday across inland portions of the Bay Area and Salinas Valley. For individuals sensitive to heat, remember to take breaks when outdoors and drink plenty of water. Otherwise, this weekends weather looks warm and pleasant so take advantage and enjoy it! && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1032 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024 Satellite shows the stratus remains pretty socked in for most terminals, with slow retreat back to the coast. Therefore, a mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions over the terminals. Conditions should improve between 18-19Z for most terminals. Models show some disagreement on stratus return tonight. Moderate confidence that KSTS, KAPC, KMRY and KSNS will see anywhere between MVFR-IFR conditions, as the remainder terminals may only see VFR, borderline MVFR conditions tonight. A SCT group is included in KOAK, KSFO, KSJC, and KLVK to hint at the possibility of low stratus. Winds will become relatively breezy in the afternoon, but will return to light to moderate this evening. Vicinity of SFO...VFR with light SE winds but winds will start to build to breezy and turn onshore by the afternoon. Models hint at MVFR conditions returning overnight, but had low confidence to include in TAFs at this moment. Winds become light to moderate overnight. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR, with ceilings continuing to lift. Expect VFR between 19-20Z. High confidence that low ceilings will return tonight to MVFR criteria, with possible IFR conditions throughout the night. Winds will become breezy by the afternoon and return to light to moderate tonight. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 849 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024 Northwesterly winds continue to increase through the day, particularly over the northernmost zones with gale-force gusts expected in the northern outer waters. Gale-force winds start to move closer to some of the southern zones into the weekend. Rougher seas are expected for the outer waters starting this weekend and lasting well into the next work week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...SO MARINE...SO Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea