180
FXUS66 KMTR 161048
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
348 AM PDT Thu May 16 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1232 PM PDT Wed May 15 2024

Quiet weather will continue with a persistent marine layer through
the forecast period. Morning clouds and mist will clear in the
afternoon. Despite the clearing, coastal areas will remain in the
cool marine air, keeping highs in the 60s. Inland and high
elevation areas will reach the 70s and 80s each afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1217 AM PDT Thu May 16 2024

High pressure aloft remains the predominant weather feature over the
northeast Pacific as weak troughing prevails across the Desert
Southwest. We remain on the eastern periphery of the ridge, with
minimal influence so far. In fact, the marine layer remains
relatively stable from where it was 24 hours ago with a depth of 1.5-
2 kft. Some patchy drizzle was observed around the Monterey Bay
area within the past few hours as well. Expect the upper ridge
location to remain fairly similar for the remainder of the short
term forecast period with little overall change. It`s possible that
the marine layer may compress a little given the nearby ridge, but
so far it`s remained fairly consistent in depth. Otherwise it`s
another day of low clouds clearing to the coast during the afternoon
before returning this evening and overnight. Highs today will remain
seasonally cool and range from the upper 50s along the coast to the
lower-mid 80s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1217 AM PDT Thu May 16 2024

Expect a transition towards west coast troughing by early next week.
This pattern is supportive of weak cold frontal passages, cooler
temperatures, and breezy northwest winds. Coastal drizzle may become
a bit more prominent at times as well. High temperatures will be
mostly in the 60s and 70s, with the warmest inland areas perhaps
breaking 80 degrees. But by and large readings will remain a touch
below seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 343 AM PDT Thu May 16 2024

Currently a mix of IFR-VFR at the terminals. The marine layer has
slightly deepened, leading to an improvement in ceilings to IFR-
MVFR. Widespread VFR and onshore flow will prevail by this
afternoon. Most terminals are expected to once again be on the
receiving end of IFR-MVFR stratus towards the end of the TAF
period with LVK and SJC not expected to receive stratus until the
next TAF cycle.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. Confidence is
moderate that the terminal will get an MVFR ceiling this morning.
VFR to prevail by late morning. Winds will be westerly/southwesterly
through the TAF period. MVFR stratus returns towards the end of
the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently IFR with southwesterly flow at
MRY and IFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. Both terminals are
expected to briefly improve to VFR this afternoon with IFR
conditions slated to return to both terminals again tonight. Winds
will remain westerly for MRY and northwesterly for SNS through the
TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 AM PDT Thu May 16 2024

Surface high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean will ever so
slightly begin to build and move east today. As a result, the
pressure gradient will tighten and northwesterly winds will
increase, particularly over the northernmost zones and outer
waters.  Significant wave heights will build through early next
week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Saturday
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPM
LONG TERM....SPM
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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