436
FXUS66 KMTR 131912
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1212 PM PDT Mon May 13 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1208 AM PDT Mon May 13 2024

A relatively quiet pattern will persist featuring overnight and
morning coastal clouds with clear skies elsewhere. Inland
temperatures will warm into the 70s and 80s each afternoon with
cool onshore breezes keeping coastal temperatures in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1208 AM PDT Mon May 13 2024

A weak upper low will drift towards the central CA coast while
upstream ridging dominates the northeast Pacific. This pattern will
promote the subsequent deepening of the marine layer today as low
stratus clouds penetrate deeper inland. The top of the marine
inversion has continued to increase, and is now up to around 2,000
feet per the Fort Ord profiler. Given this depth wouldn`t be
surprised to see a little coastal drizzle early this morning in the
favorable spots so added this to the forecast. Any accumulations
should be quite minor. Otherwise look for low clouds to clear back
towards the coast this afternoon with the marine influence keeping
coastal/bayside temperatures in the 60s. Elsewhere look for 70s and
80s in the warmest inland valleys, with a few locations in southern
Monterey County perhaps nearing 90 degrees. Clouds will push back
inland by this evening with mostly cloudy conditions again
prevailing for many areas tonight. Lows will dip into the upper 40s

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1208 AM PDT Mon May 13 2024

Temperatures will cool slightly with onshore flow and weak troughing
aloft persisting. An upper ridge does build/strengthen over the
northeast Pacific by mid week, but it appears our area will remain
along its periphery with no strong signal for a warming trend. In
general high temperatures will range from the 60s along the coast to
the lower-mid 80s for the warmest inland areas. This will only
produce a minor HeatRisk for the warmest locations. Lows will
generally be in the lower to mid 50s. Coastal clouds are likely
during the overnight and AM hours with a gradual clearing towards
the coast each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM PDT Mon May 13 2024

Stratus will continue to recede through the morning. Towards noon,
most terminals are expected to achieve VFR conditions. The one
question will be KMRY, but otherwise expecting widespread clearing.
Winds onshore and breezy this afternoon, then easing to become light
into the nighttime. Stratus makes an early return for most terminals
in the evening, bringing IFR/LIFR CIGs. IFR/LIFR lasts through the
late morning of Tuesday for most terminals.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions last through the late afternoon,
though stratus is expected to make a return in the early to mid
evening. Stratus CIGs are expected to be on the cusp of MVFR/IFR,
but are generally expected to decrease to become IFR by the late
night tonight. IFR conditions last through the later morning of
Tuesday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...CIGs at this hour have lifted to become
MVFR, with satellite continuing to show stratus receding back to the
coastline. Briefly this afternoon, enough clearing is expected to be
achieved to reach VFR, though confidence on this is only moderate.
Any VFR will be short lived, as stratus is expected to make a strong
push in the late afternoon today to come back onshore. LIFR
conditions are then expected to last through the morning of Tuesday,
with visibilities decreasing significantly through the night as
CIGs lower and fog develops.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1211 PM PDT Mon May 13 2024

  Fresh breezes out of the northwest continue through at least the
midweek, then ease to become gentle to moderate, and more
southwesterly. Fair weather will prevail, though marine stratus
will create overcast skies through much of the week. Significant
wave heights will continue to build to 12-15 feet in the northern
outer waters by Tuesday. Wave heights then gradually diminish
into the late week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-Pt
     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Tuesday
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPM
LONG TERM....SPM
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AC

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