765
FXUS66 KMTR 150547
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1047 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 115 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024

Relatively calm and quiet weather pattern persists through the
forecast period bringing a repeat of morning marine stratus along
the coast and valleys and clear skies elsewhere. Inland
temperatures warm into the 70s and 80s each afternoon with a
persistent marine layer keeping coastal highs in the 60s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024

Forecast remains on track this evening with low stratus once
again expected to persist across our coastal areas through at
least the late morning tomorrow. Temperatures tomorrow afternoon will
be very similar to today, in the 60s near the coastline with 70s
and 80s farther inland. Moderate to strong onshore flow will
result in breezy afternoon winds with gusts up to 40 MPH across
some of our gaps and passes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 115 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024

Calm weather persists as the low pressure system that sits near
southern California continues to move inland and the ridging pattern
slightly strengthens. Overnight temperatures will be similar to last
night with minimum temperatures reaching in the high 40s to mid 50s.
Wednesday afternoon, temperatures will warm by a few degrees with
inland areas seeing up to mid 70s to low 80s, while the coast will
see temperatures in the 60s. Coastal stratus is expected to rebuild
again tonight as the marine layer still sits about 1,500-2,000 feet
near Ft. Ord. Therefore, don`t be surprise to see another gloomy
morning along the coast and in the valleys with clearing in the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 115 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024

The low pressure system sitting along the southwest of CONUS will
continue to move eastward, allowing for a broad high pressure system
over the ocean to slightly influence the area. This will bringing
overall calm weather with some clear skies in the interior areas and
some gloomy morning near the coast from the onshore flow. This
pattern of cloudy mornings and clear skies by the afternoon for the
coastal areas will likely repeat itself through the remainder of the
week into Monday, with a slight chance of early morning drizzle in a
few spots along the coast. The max temperatures will remain in the
60s along the coast, with interior areas reaching up to the mid 70s
to mid 80s. The minimum temperatures overnight will stay relatively
the same through the week with high 40s to mid 50s.

By Sunday through Monday, another low pressure system off the coast
will start to move closer to region. This will bring slightly cooler
temperatures inland. Model ensembles show agreement that no
precipitation will be associated with this troughing pattern thus far,
and calm dry weather will continue into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1046 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024

Currently seeing a mix of LIFR-VFR at the terminals. With the
exception of LVK, LIFR-MVFR stratus will impact all terminals
overnight. Widespread VFR and breezy onshore flow will prevail by
tomorrow afternoon. LIFR-MVFR stratus looks to make a return to MRY,
OAK, SFO, and SNS towards the end of the respective TAF periods.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with breezy northwesterly flow. An
IFR ceiling will impact the terminal overnight before VFR prevails
by the afternoon. Winds will remain onshore and breezy through the
TAF period. A low-end MVFR-high-end IFR ceiling is likely to return
towards the end of the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently IFR with westerly flow at MRY and
IFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. Ceilings are expected to further
deteriorate to LIFR. VFR will prevail by tomorrow afternoon with MRY
deteriorating to LIFR and SNS deteriorating to IFR by tomorrow
evening. Winds will remain onshore through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1046 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024

Rough seas continue to diminish through Wednesday as the pressure
gradient slackens and winds decrease. A moderate NW swell will
continue to keep significant wave heights elevated, bordering on
hazardous for small craft, in the far NW coastal zone. Otherwise,
favorable conditions will continue into the weekend, with stronger
NW winds expected next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SO
LONG TERM....SO
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...DialH

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea