981
FXUS66 KMTR 151739
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1039 AM PDT Wed May 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 115 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024

Relatively calm and quiet weather pattern persists through the
forecast period bringing a repeat of morning marine stratus along
the coast and valleys and clear skies elsewhere. Inland
temperatures warm into the 70s and 80s each afternoon with a
persistent marine layer keeping coastal highs in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1206 AM PDT Wed May 15 2024

High pressure over the northeast Pacific will nudge a bit closer to
the Bay Area and Central Coast as low pressure aloft weakens over
northern Baja. The marine layer remains rather consistent early this
morning in the 1.5-2 kft range, which is similar to yesterday. With
slightly greater influence from the ridge expect the top of the
marine temperature inversion to either hold steady or compress a bit
over the next 24 hours. Regardless, there are no real meaningful
changes to the forecast. Expect morning clouds to gradually retreat
back towards the coast by early afternoon with sun returning for
most areas. This will allow high temperatures to reach the 70s and
80s inland, with 60s for the immediate coast and bays. Low stratus
clouds will spread back inland this evening with mostly cloudy
conditions returning overnight. Lows will be mostly in the lower to
mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1206 AM PDT Wed May 15 2024

The upper level ridge will gain slight prominence through Thursday,
however we will remain along its periphery with a minimal
increase in temperatures inland. Readings will range from the 60s
along the coast to the upper 80s for the warmest inland valleys. A
few hot spots may crack the 90 degree mark. Lows will be mostly
in the 50s. The daily ebb and flow of coastal clouds will
continue, with coverage spreading inland each night with a gradual
retreat towards the coast by afternoon. The upper level pattern
may transition more towards troughing by early next week but dry
weather still looks to be the most probable forecast outcome.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1039 AM PDT Wed May 15 2024

Satellite shows the stratus continues to retreat back to the coast.
Therefore, a mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions over the terminals.
Conditions should improve shortly after 18Z for all terminals but
another round of stratus is expected tonight bringing a mix of
MVFR/IFR/LIFR with clearing near 17-18Z again Thursday morning.
Winds will become relatively breezy in the afternoon, but will
return to light to moderate this evening.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR with light winds. Winds will start to build to
breezy and turn onshore by the afternoon. MVFR conditions will
return overnight with clearing near 17Z. Winds become light to
moderate overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR ceilings have lifted from KMRY to IFR.
Therefore, both terminals should clear near 18Z. VFR should prevail
until tonight where a mix of LIFR and IFR conditions will return.
Winds will become breezy this afternoon, and return to light to
moderate overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 443 AM PDT Wed May 15 2024

As surface high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean slightly
weakens and retrogrades to the west, the pressure gradient will
relax, moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes will prevail, and
significant wave heights will continue to abate through Thursday.
By  Friday this surface high pressure builds and moves east,
increasing  northwesterly breezes and building wave heights
through the weekend  and into next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPM
LONG TERM....SPM
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...Flynn

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