534
FXUS66 KMTR 150708
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1208 AM PDT Wed May 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 115 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024

Relatively calm and quiet weather pattern persists through the
forecast period bringing a repeat of morning marine stratus along
the coast and valleys and clear skies elsewhere. Inland
temperatures warm into the 70s and 80s each afternoon with a
persistent marine layer keeping coastal highs in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1206 AM PDT Wed May 15 2024

High pressure over the northeast Pacific will nudge a bit closer to
the Bay Area and Central Coast as low pressure aloft weakens over
northern Baja. The marine layer remains rather consistent early this
morning in the 1.5-2 kft range, which is similar to yesterday. With
slightly greater influence from the ridge expect the top of the
marine temperature inversion to either hold steady or compress a bit
over the next 24 hours. Regardless, there are no real meaningful
changes to the forecast. Expect morning clouds to gradually retreat
back towards the coast by early afternoon with sun returning for
most areas. This will allow high temperatures to reach the 70s and
80s inland, with 60s for the immediate coast and bays. Low stratus
clouds will spread back inland this evening with mostly cloudy
conditions returning overnight. Lows will be mostly in the lower to
mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1206 AM PDT Wed May 15 2024

The upper level ridge will gain slight prominence through Thursday,
however we will remain along its periphery with a minimal
increase in temperatures inland. Readings will range from the 60s
along the coast to the upper 80s for the warmest inland valleys. A
few hot spots may crack the 90 degree mark. Lows will be mostly
in the 50s. The daily ebb and flow of coastal clouds will
continue, with coverage spreading inland each night with a gradual
retreat towards the coast by afternoon. The upper level pattern
may transition more towards troughing by early next week but dry
weather still looks to be the most probable forecast outcome.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1046 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024

Currently seeing a mix of LIFR-VFR at the terminals. With the
exception of LVK, LIFR-MVFR stratus will impact all terminals
overnight. Widespread VFR and breezy onshore flow will prevail by
tomorrow afternoon. LIFR-MVFR stratus looks to make a return to MRY,
OAK, SFO, and SNS towards the end of the respective TAF periods.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with breezy northwesterly flow. An
IFR ceiling will impact the terminal overnight before VFR prevails
by the afternoon. Winds will remain onshore and breezy through the
TAF period. A low-end MVFR-high-end IFR ceiling is likely to return
towards the end of the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently IFR with westerly flow at MRY and
IFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. Ceilings are expected to further
deteriorate to LIFR. VFR will prevail by tomorrow afternoon with MRY
deteriorating to LIFR and SNS deteriorating to IFR by tomorrow
evening. Winds will remain onshore through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1046 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024

Rough seas continue to diminish through Wednesday as the pressure
gradient slackens and winds decrease. A moderate NW swell will
continue to keep significant wave heights elevated, bordering on
hazardous for small craft, in the far NW coastal zone. Otherwise,
favorable conditions will continue into the weekend, with stronger
NW winds expected next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPM
LONG TERM....SPM
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...DialH

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