Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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282 FXUS66 KMTR 171550 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 850 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 250 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024 Quiet weather persists. Widespread stratus coverage dissipating by mid to late morning with breezy, clear conditions developing by the afternoon. Heading into the weekend, stratus coverage will be diminished with stratus primarily confined to coastal regions. && .UPDATE... Issued at 849 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024 Light drizzle has been reported over the region this morning with amounts up to 0.02" across the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, Santa Cruz, and around the Monterey Bay region. Given the deep marine layer in place, temperatures will struggle to reach into the 80`s with only places such as the far interior Salinas Valley and North Bay Valleys hitting that mark. Otherwise, low clouds will retreat back to the coast by mid-to-late morning giving way to mostly sunny sky conditions this afternoon. Overall, the forecast remains on track with no updates anticipated at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 250 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024 Widespread stratus has returned. Current observations show no major impacts to visibility inland with a few stations reporting reduced visibilities directly along the coast. The marine layer has continued to deepen with the Ford Ord Coastal Profiler showing the top of the marine layer at ~3000 ft. Expect light drizzle overnight in coastal areas with little to no accumulation anticipated - any drizzle that does accumulate will be less than a few hundredths of an inch. Inland s stratus coverage will dissipate by mid-morning with temperatures warming into the 70`s. Along the coast, stratus coverage will linger through the late morning/early afternoon with temperatures staying on the cooler side in the upper 50`s to low 60`s. Friday night - inland stratus intrusions are expected to be minimal with stratus primarily confined along the coast as the marine layer continues to deepen. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 250 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024 Heading into the late weekend, the 500mb pattern shows a transition from upper level zonal flow to troughing as a surface low pressure system moves northeast of the Bay Area. This will enable the developing deeper marine layer to persist through the week and limit stratus intrusions to coastal regions. A slight inland warming trend develops throughout the early work week as decreased morning cloud coverage will lead to increased surface warming. Inland high temperatures will largely stay in the mid to upper 70`s with the warmest regions reaching the low 80`s. No major changes to coastal temperatures with stratus coverage limiting surface warming and keeping temperatures in the upper 50`s to mid 60`s. Minor heat risk is possible Monday and Tuesday across inland portions of the Bay Area and Salinas Valley. For individuals sensitive to heat, remember to take breaks when outdoors and drink plenty of water. Otherwise, this weekends weather looks warm and pleasant so take advantage and enjoy it! && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 445 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024 IFR and MVFR CIGs last into the mid morning for most TAF sites, but last longer for coastal areas and around the Monterey Bay. Winds stay light to moderate through the morning. Cloud cover thins in the mid morning to early afternoon Friday, leading to widespread for the TAF sites, but status lingers on the immediate coast. Expect moderate winds Friday afternoon that last into the night. Coastal cloud cover moves slightly inland Friday evening, affecting SNS and MRY. Vicinity of SFO...MVFR CIGs last through the mid morning before clearing. Expect moderate westerly winds to reduce into Friday morning, becoming light in the mid morning. Moderate west winds build into Friday afternoon, but reduce into late Friday evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR/IFR CIGs last through the the early afternoon Friday with some moments of drizzle. CIGS recede back to the immediate coast into the afternoon, leading to VFR at the TAF sites. Winds stay light to moderate through the TAF Period. MVFR CIGs return early Friday evening. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 849 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024 Northwesterly winds continue to increase through the day, particularly over the northernmost zones with gale-force gusts expected in the northern outer waters. Gale-force winds start to move closer to some of the southern zones into the weekend. Rougher seas are expected for the outer waters starting this weekend and lasting well into the next work week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ UPDATE...RGass SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...SO Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea